Thursday, February 18, 2016

Diamonds Are Bullshit

 2013-08-05-Diamond1.jpg
American males enter adulthood through a peculiar rite of passage -- they spend most of their savings on a shiny piece of rock. They could invest the money in assets that will compound over time and someday provide a nest egg. Instead, they trade that money for a diamond ring, which isn't much of an asset at all. As soon as you leave the jeweler with a diamond, it loses over 50 percent of its value.
Americans exchange diamond rings as part of the engagement process, because in 1938 De Beers decided that they would like us to. Prior to a stunningly successful marketing campaign 1938, Americans occasionally exchanged engagement rings, but wasn't a pervasive occurrence. Not only is the demand for diamonds a marketing invention, but diamonds aren't actually that rare. Only by carefully restricting the supply has De Beers kept the price of a diamond high.
Countless American dudes will attest that the societal obligation to furnish a diamond engagement ring is both stressful and expensive. But here's the thing -- this obligation only exists because the company that stands to profit from it willed it into existence.
So here is a modest proposal: Let's agree that diamonds are bullshit and reject their role in the marriage process. Let's admit that as a society we got tricked for about a century into coveting sparkling pieces of carbon, but it's time to end the nonsense.
The Concept of Intrinsic Value
In finance, there is concept called intrinsic value. An asset's value is essentially driven by the (discounted) value of the future cash that asset will generate. For example, when Hertz buys a car, its value is the profit they get from renting it out and selling the car at the end of its life (the "terminal value"). For Hertz, a car is an investment. When you buy a car, unless you make money from it somehow, its value corresponds to its resale value. Since a car is a depreciating asset, the amount of value that the car loses over its lifetime is a very real expense you pay.
A diamond is a depreciating asset masquerading as an investment. There is a common misconception that jewelry and precious metals are assets that can store value, appreciate and hedge against inflation. That's not wholly untrue.
Gold and silver are commodities that can be purchased on financial markets. They can appreciate and hold value in times of inflation. You can even hoard gold under your bed and buy gold coins and bullion (albeit at a ~10 percent premium to market rates). If you want to hoard gold jewelry however, there is typically a retail markup so that's probably not a wise investment.
But with that caveat in mind, the market for gold is fairly liquid and gold is fungible -- you can trade one large piece of gold for 10 smalls ones like you can a 10 dollar bill for 10 one dollar bills. These characteristics make it a feasible potential investment.
Diamonds, however, are not an investment. The market for them is neither liquid nor are they fungible.
The first test of a liquid market is whether you can resell a diamond. In a famous piece published by The Atlantic in 1982, Edward Epstein explains why you can't sell used diamonds for anything but a pittance:
Retail jewelers, especially the prestigious Fifth Avenue stores, prefer not to buy back diamonds from customers, because the offer they would make would most likely be considered ridiculously low. The "keystone," or markup, on a diamond and its setting may range from 100 to 200 percent, depending on the policy of the store; if it bought diamonds back from customers, it would have to buy them back at wholesale prices.
...
Most jewelers would prefer not to make a customer an offer that might be deemed insulting and also might undercut the widely-held notion that diamonds go up in value. Moreover, since retailers generally receive their diamonds from wholesalers on consignment, and need not pay for them until they are sold, they would not readily risk their own cash to buy diamonds from customers.
When you buy a diamond, you buy it at retail, which is a 100 percent to 200 percent markup. If you want to resell it, you have to pay less than wholesale to incent a diamond buyer to risk their own capital on the purchase. Given the large markup, this will mean a substantial loss on your part. The same article puts some numbers around the dilemma:
Because of the steep markup on diamonds, individuals who buy retail and in effect sell wholesale often suffer enormous losses. For example, Brod estimates that a half-carat diamond ring, which might cost $2,000 at a retail jewelry store, could be sold for only $600 at Empire.
Some diamonds are perhaps investment grade, but you probably don't own one, even if you spent a lot.
The appraisers at Empire Diamonds examine thousands of diamonds a month but rarely turn up a diamond of extraordinary quality. Almost all the diamonds they find are slightly flawed, off-color, commercial-grade diamonds. The chief appraiser says, "When most of these diamonds were purchased, American women were concerned with the size of the diamond, not its intrinsic quality." He points out that the setting frequently conceals flaws, and adds, "The sort of flawless, investment-grade diamond one reads about is almost never found in jewelry."
As with televisions and mattresses, the diamond classification scheme is extremely complicated. Diamonds are not fungible and can't be easily exchanged with each other. Diamond professionals use the four C's when classifying and pricing diamonds: carats, color, cut, and clarity. Due to the complexity of these four dimensions, it's hard to make apples to apples comparisons between diamonds.
But even when looking at the value of one stone, professionals seem like they're just making up diamond prices:

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