5 Obscure Formulas That Rule the World

You probably don't think about the Dirac equation on an average day, but it describes just about everything that happens to you.

Prospect Theory

V(x,p) = v(x)w(p)

People hate losing money about twice as much as they love making it: It takes a $20 discount, researchers have found, to make up for the sting of a $10 surcharge on a purchase. That is one reason why even experienced stockbrokers often sell stocks while they are still increasing in value, leaving money on the table rather than risking a loss.

Prospect theory’s central formula lays out how we go with our gut when determining the value (V) of a possible outcome (x) with a given probability (p). It takes into account many of people’s most predictable — and, at times, peculiar — financial irrationalities: shying away from losses, for instance, and overestimating tiny probabilities like the 1-in-10-million chance of winning the lottery.

Exponential Decay

N(t) = N0e-λt

In 1899 Ernest Rutherford noticed that half of the atoms in a sample of radioactive radon gas disappeared with each passing minute. He had discovered 
both radioactive decay, in which certain elements break down by emitting subatomic particles, and half-life, the time it takes for half the atoms in a sample to decay. Each radioactive element decays exponentially, decreasing over time (t) at a rate proportional to the number of atoms there are (N).

By measuring how much of the original element remains, scientists can determine the age of a sample. Elements like uranium 238, which has a half-life of 4.5 billion years, let geologists determine the age of rocks and meteorites; those that decay over thousands of years, like carbon-14, help date archaeological artifacts and human remains.

Dirac Equation

(cα ⋅ p̂ + Βmc2) ψ = iℏ δψ/δt

Physics is dominated by dual theoretical systems: quantum mechanics for the subatomic realm, relativity for cosmic scales. Understanding the behavior of a basic particle like an electron requires reconciling the two. In 1928 English physicist Paul Dirac did that with his equation describing an electron in terms of both its wave function (ψ) — the quantum probability of its being in a particular place — and its mass times the speed of light squared (mc2), a relativistic interpretation of its energy.

The equation specifically shows how particles align in medical scanners, but in a broader sense it explains the very essence of how matter works. “Electrons make up almost all observable things,” says physicist Laurie Brown, “and this is a description of the electron that satisfies all known requirements of nature.”

Doppler Equation

Δ λ/ λ = v/c

Slight shifts in the color of light coming from a distant star can clue astronomers in to an orbiting planet via the Doppler equation, which links changes in the wavelength (λ) of light to the motion (v) of the thing emitting it. As a star approaches, its light is compressed and looks bluer; as it moves away, the light stretches and reddens. An unseen planet that tugs the star back and forth will yield a characteristic pattern of color changes.

Closer to home, the Doppler equation helps enforce speed limits and predict weather by measuring the speed of cars and storm systems; Doppler shifts also alter radio signals from communications satellites in ways that must be canceled out.

Clocking Evolution

K = 2NuP K = u

To find the last common ancestor of any two species, scientists look to the molecular clock, which describes how quickly genetic mutations accrue. According to the clock equation, the rate at which mutations become permanent (K) equals the rate at which those mutations happen (u) times the population size (N) times the probability (P) that a mutation will become permanent, times 2.

When dealing with mutations that confer no selective advantage, says Michael Steiper of Hunter College in New York, “the amount of genetic difference scales to time.” In other words, each gene is equally likely to become fixed, with probability 1/(2N), producing the simplified bottom formula. Molecular clocks allow scientists to trace the ancient tree of life, even when fossil evidence is scarce, and help find the branches that led to modern humans. You are collecting mutations (data for future anthropologists) right now.

 

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The Blame Game

 

 When you blame someone or something, you have successfully locked yourself in a cell and thrown away the key. Your situation can no longer change until the thing or person that you blame changes, I hope that you have a Snickers.

 When you look at a person or thing and see that it blocks or constricts one avenue between you and your goal, you have regained the key to your cell.

 The next step is to imagine all the options that are available to gain what you desire & it will take work. Creating new avenues can be a challenge and in most instances, that's why a lazy-minded person chose to blame in the first place.

 I wanted a can of beans and without a can opener I used a knife, I wanted peace in a hostile situation so I meditated until I disconnected and peace came never physically removing myself from the scenario. 

 And here's the last part: I was living on my sports yacht in Daytona Beach, FL. and I wanted my dogs to have puppies & after serving my country on more than one occasion, I no longer agreed with the United State's values so I walked away from it all = Sacrifice.

 If you're willing to mentally work & sacrifice there is nothing that you can not do, no blame required.

 The owner of this blog, The Metaphysician, NDJ

It's time to relax

 

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Biden’s retreat: The humiliation of a superpower

 The chaos in Afghanistan has ‘shredded’ America’s reputation as a global power.

“America’s back,” President Biden grandly declared in his first global address after taking office. Yet on the evidence of the past week, said The Times, that claim could scarcely be further from the truth. The Taliban’s extraordinary capture of Kabul brought to mind the fall of Saigon in 1975. It marks a humiliating end to a two-decade war which has cost trillions of dollars; it will cause the Afghan people immeasurable suffering; and it will heighten the risk of the very Islamist terrorism that the US-led intervention in 2001 was meant to quell. Perhaps most significantly, it represents a comprehensive repudiation by the US of its commitment to “defend liberty abroad”, a principle which has underpinned Western foreign policy for the better part of a century. It’s too soon to say just how damaging Biden’s Afghan withdrawal will be, said The Economist. But “the stench of great-power humiliation” that has pervaded this past week suggests his many boasts about reasserting US leadership after “four years of buffoonery” under Donald Trump are likely to “haunt his presidency”.

And so will the images from Kabul of the “shuttered American embassy”, said Roger Cohen in The New York Times, and of “gun-toting Taliban forces” taking over government buildings that were meant to enshrine an “American-built democracy”. Yet the blame for this “disaster” cannot be levelled at Biden alone. True, the president – like much of the US public – has long doubted the wisdom of America’s continued presence in Afghanistan. But he’d been boxed in by Trump’s decision last year to strike a direct deal with the Taliban, one that excluded the Afghan government, which committed the US to withdrawing by May. If you ask me, said Rod Liddle in The Sunday Times, “getting the hell out” is the right call. In fact, “we should never have gone in”. We in the West may tell ourselves we’re doing good by “bombing the people we do not approve of”, but the overwhelming evidence suggests that our penchant for nation-building invariably “ends up badly for us and even worse for them”. In Afghanistan, that is clearly evidenced by the deaths of 240,000 Afghans, 70,000 of them civilians, since 2001 – to say nothing of the 2,312 US soldiers and 456 British troops who lost their lives there too. We may enter these places hoping to turn them into “nice liberal democracies”. But we can’t, and it’s time we stopped trying to.

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"I know nothing & understand even less", NDJ Explained

 

Socrates is philosophy’s martyr. Sentenced to death in 399BC Athens for ‘corrupting the minds of the youth,’ Socrates never wrote anything down. We know of his era-defining thinking only through the writings of his contemporaries, particularly his student Plato. ⁣

Plato’s Socratic dialogues — some of the most wonderful works in the history of philosophy — feature Socrates in lively conversation on a wide range of subjects, from justice and virtue to art and politics. The central theme in Socrates's thinking, however, concerned the nature of knowledge — specifically, on how none of us really have any. As a statement often attributed to Socrates puts it:

True wisdom comes to each of us when we realize how little we understand about life, ourselves, and the world around us.⁣

During Socrates's life, the Oracle of Delphi proclaimed him the wisest of all people. Socrates, regularly declaring absolute ignorance as he did, could not agree. He therefore set out on a quest to find someone wiser to prove the Oracle wrong.

Ruffling influential feathers with the Socratic method

Socrates approached influential Athenians considered wise by the people of the day — statesmen, poets, and teachers. He conversed with these individuals using what is now known as the Socratic method, a form of cooperative dialogue that uses incisive questioning to stimulate critical thinking and draw out presuppositions.

A more straightforward way to think about the Socratic method is to imagine a relentlessly curious child asking ‘why’ after every single explanation an adult offers, seeking a truly foundational response to a question rather than an endless chain of unsatisfactory causal reasoning. Unfortunately for Socrates, being a quite famously ugly adult male, he was not afforded the same good grace a child might have been.

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20 Best Things to Do in Ecuador & Incredible Places to Visit

 

Ecuador may be a relatively small country, but it holds loads of amazing experiences for travelers to enjoy. There are so many awesome things to do in Ecuador to fill weeks or even months of travel! The vast diversity of landscapes lends to so many different places to visit all throughout the country.

Serene beaches line Ecuador’s coastline.

The glacier-capped Andes loom over the country.

A lush jungle environment thrives in both the Amazon basin and Ecuador’s cloud forests.

Then toss in the many charming colonial cities dotting the natural landscapes.

And let’s not forget about the incredible underwater world of the Galapagos!

It’s this vast diversity that supports the long-held tourism slogan “All you need is Ecuador.” Each different environment holds so many intriguing things to do in Ecuador. Yet with this abundance of recreation and culture to explore, it can be difficult to narrow down exactly what to do in Ecuador.

So we’ve now spent a total of six months traveling across the country to seek the very best places to visit in Ecuador. This article was written from that experience to offer travel ideas and suggestions for those who may be considering a trip to Ecuador.

The best things to do in Ecuador will vary to each person, depending on interests. Some may have a penchant for cultural exploration. Whereas others may be more interested in Ecuador’s nature. Some may favor relaxing at Ecuador’s beaches or luxury spas. Others may prefer climbing a volcano or mountain biking down it!

There’s something for everyone! We wrote this roundup of what to do in Ecuador to highlight the best travel experiences Ecuador has to offer across each of those spectrums. It’s our hope that this list of the best places to visit in Ecuador will provide travel inspiration for a trip to this awesome country.

Complete article.

Mensa Invited, The Metaphysician, NDJ

 

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"Conspiracy Theory" does not men that there's no truth in the thought(s)

As the COVID-19 crisis worsens, the world also faces a global misinformation pandemic. Conspiracy theories that behave like viruses themselves are spreading just as rapidly online as SARS-CoV-2 does offline. Here are the top 10 conspiracy theories making the rounds.

Blaming 5G

This conspiracy theory should be easy to debunk: it is biologically impossible for viruses to spread using the electromagnetic spectrum. The latter are waves/photons, while the former are biological particles composed of proteins and nucleic acids. But that isn’t really the point — conspiracy theories are enticing because they often link two things which at first might appear be correlated; in this case, the rapid rollout of 5G networks was taking place at the same time the pandemic hit. Cue a viral meme linking the two, avidly promoted by anti-vaccine activists who have long been spreading fears about electromagnetic radiation, egged on by the Kremlin.

It’s worth repeating, as the World Health Organization (WHO) points out, that viruses cannot travel on mobile networks, and that COVID-19 is spreading rapidly in many countries that do not have 5G networks. Even so, this conspiracy theory — after being spread by celebrities with big social media followings — has led to cellphone towers being set on fire in the UK and elsewhere.

Bill Gates as scapegoat

Most conspiracy theories, like the viruses they resemble, constantly mutate and have several variants circulating at any one time. Many of these plots and subplots seem to involve Bill Gates, who became a new target of disinformation after gently criticizing the defunding of the World Health Organization. According to the New York Times, anti-vaxxers, members of QAnon and right-wing pundits have seized on a video of a 2015 Ted talk given by Gates — where he discussed the Ebola outbreak and warned of a new pandemic — to bolster their claims he had foreknowledge of the COVID pandemic or even purposely caused it.

A recent variant of this conspiracy theory, particularly beloved by anti-vaccination activists, is the idea that COVID is part of a dastardly Gates-led plot to vaccinate the world’s population. There is some truth in this, of course: vaccinating much of the world’s population may well be the only way to avoid an eventual death toll in the tens of millions. But anti-vaxxers don’t believe vaccines work. Instead some have spread the myth that Gates wants to use a vaccination program to implant digital microchips that will somehow track and control people. The spread of misinformation has meant that ID2020, a small non-profit that focuses on establishing digital IDs for poorer people around the world, has had to call in the FBI. (The Cornell Alliance for Science is partly funded by the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.)

The virus escaped from a Chinese lab

This one at least has the benefit of being plausible. It is true that the original epicenter of the epidemic, the Chinese city of Wuhan, also hosts a virology institute where researchers have been studying bat coronaviruses for a long time. One of these researchers, Shi Zhengli, a prominent virologist who spent years collecting bat dung samples in caves and was a lead expert on the earlier SARS outbreak, was sufficiently concerned about the prospect that she spent days frantically checking lab records to see if anything had gone wrong. She admits breathing a “sigh of relief” when genetic sequencing showed that the new SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus did not match any of the viruses sampled and studied in the Wuhan Institute of Virology by her team.

However, the sheer coincidence of China’s lead institute studying bat coronaviruses being in the same city as the origin of the COVID outbreak has proven too juicy for conspiracists to resist. The idea was seeded originally via a slick hour-long documentary produced by the Epoch Times, an English-language news outlet based in the United States with links to the Falun Gong religious cult that has long been persecuted by the Chinese Communist Party (CCP). The Epoch Times insists on calling COVID “the CCP virus” in all its coverage. The theory has now tipped into the mainstream, being reported in the Washington Post, the Times (UK) and many other outlets.

COVID was created as a biological weapon

A spicier variant is that COVID not only escaped from a lab, but it was intentionally created by Chinese scientists as a biowarfare weapon. According to Pew Research, “nearly three-in-10 Americans believe that COVID-19 was made in a lab,” either intentionally or accidentally (the former is more popular: specifically, 23 percent believe it was developed intentionally, with only 6 percent believing it was an accident).

This theory that the Chinese somehow created the virus is particularly popular on the US political right. It gained mainstream coverage thanks to US Sen. Tom Cotton (Republican,  Arkansas) who amplified theories first aired in the Washington Examiner (a highly conservative media outlet) that the Wuhan Institute of Virology “is linked to Beijing’s covert bio-weapons program.”

This theory can be easily debunked now that there is unambiguous scientific evidence — thanks to genetic sequencing — that the SARS-CoV-2 virus has entirely natural origins as a zoonotic virus originating in bats. The Examiner has since added a correction at the top of the original piece admitting the story is probably false.

The US military imported COVID into China

The Chinese government responded to the anti-China theories with a conspiracy theory of its own that seeks to turn blame back around onto the United States. This idea was spread initially by Chinese foreign ministry spokesman Zhao Lijian, who Tweeted “it’s possible that the US military brought the virus to Wuhan.” These comments, according to Voice of America news, “echoed a rumored conspiracy, widely circulated in China, that US military personnel had brought the virus to China during their participation in the 2019 Military World Games in Wuhan last October.” For China, as the Atlantic reported, this conspiracy theory, and an accompanying attempt to rename COVID the “USA virus,”’ was a transparent “geopolitical ploy” — useful for domestic propaganda but not widely believed internationally.

GMOs are somehow to blame         

Genetically modified crops have been a target of conspiracy theorists for years, so it was hardly a surprise to see GMOs blamed in the early stages of the COVID pandemic. In early March, Italian attorney Francesco Billota penned a bizarre article for Il Manifesto, falsely claiming that GM crops cause genetic pollution that allows viruses to proliferate due to the resulting environmental “imbalance.” Anti-GMO activists have also tried to blame modern agriculture, which is strange, since the known path of the virus into the human population — as with Ebola, HIV and many others — was through the very ancient practice of people capturing and killing wildlife.

Ironically, GMOs will almost certainly be part of any vaccine solution. If any of the ongoing 70 vaccine projects work (which is a big if), that would be pretty much the only guaranteed way the world can get out of the COVID mess. Vaccines could be based on either GM attenuated viruses or use antigens produced in GM insect cell lines or plants. If GMOs do help save the world from the curse of COVID, maybe they’ll stop being a dirty word.

COVID-19 doesn’t actually exist

According to professional conspiracy theorists like David Icke and InfoWars’ Alex Jones, COVID-19 doesn’t actually exist, but is a plot by the globalist elite to take away our freedoms. Early weaker versions of this theory were prevalent on the political right in the notion that the novel coronavirus would be “no worse than flu” and later versions are now influencing anti-lockdown protests across several states in the US. Because believers increasingly refuse to observe social distancing measures, they could directly help to spread the epidemic further in their localities and increase the resulting death rate.

The pandemic is being manipulated by the ‘deep state’

Some believe that a “deep state” of America’s elite is plotting to undermine the president — and that Dr. Anthony Fauci, the face of the US coronavirus pandemic response — is a secret member. Fauci’s expression of disbelief when the deep state was mentioned during a press briefing supposedly gave the game away.

COVID is a plot by Big Pharma

Many conspiracy theory promoters are in reality clever actors trying to sell quack products. Alex Jones, between rants about hoaxes and the New World Order, urges viewers to buy expensive miracle pills that he claims can cure all known diseases. Dr. Mercola, a quack anti-vax and anti-GMO medic who has been banned from Google due to peddling misinformation, claims that vitamins (and numerous other products he sells) can cure or prevent COVID. NaturalNews, another conspiracist site, sells all manner of pills, potions and prepper gear. These conspiracists depend for their market on getting people to believe that evidence-based (i.e. conventional) medicine doesn’t work and is a plot by big pharmaceutical companies to make us ill. Big Pharma conspiracies are a staple of anti-vaccination narratives, so it is hardly surprising that they have transmuted into the age of the coronavirus.

COVID death rates are inflated

Another far-right meme is the idea that COVID death rates are being inflated and therefore there is no reason to observe lockdown regulations or other social distancing measures. Prominent in promoting this myth is Dr. Annie Bukacek, whose speech warning that COVID death certificates are being manipulated has been viewed more than a quarter of a million times on YouTube. Bukacek appears in a white lab coat and with a stethoscope around her neck, making her look like an authoritative medical source. Dig a little deeper, however, as Rolling Stone magazine did, and it turns out she’s actually a far-right anti-vaccination and anti-abortion activist, previously noted for bringing tiny plastic fetuses into the Montana state legislature. Her insistence that COVID death rates are inflated has, of course, no basis in fact. More likely the current death toll is a serious under-count. T0 further clarify the issue, the Centers for Disease Control has published information about excess deaths associated with COVID-19.

How to recognize and debunk conspiracy theories

It is important to speak out and combat online misinformation and conspiracist narratives, whether on COVID or climate change or anything else. This handbook (PDF) by John Cook and Stephan Lewandowsky, both of whom have extensive experience in combating climate denialism, is an essential tool.

Note: As in previous coverage, it is our policy to avoid linking directly to websites and social media feeds that promote misinformation and conspiracy theories, so as not to drive traffic to them and give them higher visibility.

 

The Impact of COVID-19 on Modern Slavery

 

There are 40.3 million people estimated to be in modern slavery. How will COVID-19 impact efforts to end modern slavery, forced labour, human trafficking and child labour, as countries committed to in SDG Target 8.7?

In at least three ways: 1) heightening risks for those already exploited; 2) increasing the risks of exploitation, including child labour and child marriage; and 3) disrupting response efforts.

1. Risks for those already in situations of labour exploitation and for survivors

Labour exploitation is a product and manifestation of power imbalances. We know that those who are marginalized, discriminated against and impoverished are at greater risk of exploitation. Those people are now at even greater risk, as they are vulnerable to exclusion from adequate healthcare, have their already-constrained movement restricted further by border closures and travel disruptions, and risk stigmatization and discrimination by nativist rhetoric and politics.

In the Gulf, for example, there is serious concern about the risks of infection for migrant workers accommodated in densely packed, often poorly sanitized labour camps.  Migrant workers may lack access to local healthcare systems, and that access may be even further hampered as spiralling demands on those systems force governments to limit who receives healthcare. The surge of nativist and nationalist political rhetoric seems likely to make migrant workers easy targets for exclusion from access to services or, worse, for stigmatization as sources of infection risk.

Yet where migrant workers wish to return home, they are unlikely to be able to do so safely for some time. This will place those already at high risk of exploitation even deeper in harm’s way. There are exceptions, though, where governments are taking steps to relieve pressures, such as Australia’s proposed extension of seasonal worker visas.

Survivors also face heightened risks, including as a result of living in government- or charity-run accommodation. As public health officials and social workers prioritize COVID-19 response, the level of care available for survivors is likely to deteriorate in the months ahead. This may deepen survivors’ sense of isolation and exacerbate mental health risks. Economically vulnerable survivors will increasingly struggle to locate basic resources. Anti-slavery activists in the UK are already calling for a victim support package for survivors and victims.

2. Growing risks of enslavement

Vulnerability to enslavement will increase for several reasons.

First, because there will be an increased supply of workers vulnerable to exploitation.

The crisis will amplify some of the major drivers of modern slavery, such as poverty and financial crisis.

The UN Special Rapporteur on Contemporary Forms of Slavery recently warned that growing informalization and casualization of the labour force would heighten modern slavery risks. That risk has now been magnified hugely. The International Labour Organisation reports that the economic and labour crisis, created by COVID-19, may see global unemployment increase by almost 25 million. Working poverty rates will increase significantly, with a prediction that there will be between 20.1 million and 25 million more people in working poverty than in the pre COVID- 19 estimate. As governments order non-essential business to close, millions of people employed in the gig economy—who for the most part are on precarious contracts, with little or low access to paid sick leave and no health insurance—are put in vulnerable situations and may turn to risky or exploitative employment.

COVID-19 also poses serious health risks. Healthcare crises are known to push people towards risky labour market decisions that can make them vulnerable to modern slavery, either because they cannot afford to pay for medical care or because they lose their job as a result of the crisis. This can heighten risks of enslavement.

The COVID-19 crisis is also reducing access to safe and reliable employment. Migrant work is already being disrupted by border closures and other travel restrictions. For example, many Tajiks have been affected as Russia closed its borders due to their reliance on seasonal migration to Russia between the months of March and April— as Tajikistan is dependent on remittances this will take its toll. These workers are likely to be susceptible to exploitation and more likely to accept risky employment.

Legal restrictions on economic activity may be increasing risks of exploitation in other contexts. In Amsterdam, for example, civil society voices have expressed concern for sex workers as nightclubs shut, and sex work is pushed  underground—making workers increasingly vulnerable to trafficking.

Second, employers will have stronger incentives and perhaps greater latitude for exploitation.

Globally, the outbreak is threatening livelihoods of garment workers. In Bangladesh, over 100 factories have lost business as retailers close stores and reduce orders. The apparel industry employs 4 million people in Bangladesh who are now either at risk of losing their jobs or in a situation of vulnerability due to loss of their steady income. In Thailand, there are reports of a surge in demand from manufacturers in medical supply chains for cheap labour, targeting vulnerable migrant workers.

In order to meet demand for hand sanitizer and masks, countries including the United States have turned to prison labour as a means of production—a population at heightened risk of labour exploitation. And countries may be tempted to relax import restrictions on goods in critical supply chains, such as for medical equipment, placing workers at heightened risk. In the US, Customs and Border Protection have just revoked a hold on the import of rubber gloves from a supplier suspected of using forced labour.

It also seems foreseeable that the crisis may cause some countries, reliant on large migrant labour forces, to either curtail that reliance, or to place additional restrictions on migrant workers and limit their freedom of movement within the host country. Both factors could increase risk to modern slavery, in the first case by incentivizing bribery and corruption in allocation of places for workers, and in the second case by placing migrant workers at greater risk of exploitation by employers.

And third, with education systems suspended, children will become more vulnerable to exploitation.

Schools all over the world are shutting down, from India to the US to Iran. This will cause economic stress for some parents, creating situations that may lead to child labour. And it may lead to an increase in child marriage, as well, as a strategy for household capital formation. A recent report by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) suggests education-based initiatives are key in alleviating vulnerability to child marriage. If the disruption to education systems becomes a long-term prospect, child marriage may rise.

3. Disruption of anti-slavery efforts and government response

Finally, the social and economic disruptions caused by COVID-19 will fragment response efforts in numerous ways.

Many government and civil society response organizations have had their movements impeded. In Brazil, anti-slavery operations have halted, as the government’s special mobile enforcement group is suspended for fear of exposure to the virus.

And the resources needed to sustain anti-slavery efforts—including funding and attention—will be harder to seek. NGOs that provide critical protections—including shelters and reintegration programs—are likely to be adversely affected as donors turn their attention elsewhere.

For further reading on the impact of COVID 19. Delta 8.7 recommends:

1. Business and Human Rights Resource Centre – “In Depth Area COVID 19” round up.
2. International Labour Organisation – “COVID- 19 and the world of work: Impact and policy responses“
3. Overseas Development Institute Blog Series: The coronavirus outbreak

Angharad Smith is a Programme Officer for Delta 8.7. Dr James Cockayne is the Delta 8.7 Project Director and Director of the United Nations University Centre for Policy Research.

This article has been prepared by Angharad Smith and Dr James Cockayne as a contribution to Delta 8.7. As provided for in the Terms and Conditions of Use of Delta 8.7, the opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect those of UNU or its partners.

These are the world’s greatest threats in 2021'

 

Billions are at risk of missing out on the digital leap forward, as growing disparities challenge the social fabric.

In the medium-term, the global economy will be threatened by the knock-on effects of the coronavirus crisis, while geopolitical stability will be critically fragile over the next 5 to 10 years. Environmental risks continue to threaten: they remain top risks by likelihood and impact in this year's survey.

The Global Risks Report 2021 is the 16th edition of the Forum's annual analysis and looks back at a year ravaged by a global pandemic, economic downturn, political turmoil and the ever-worsening climate crisis. The report explores how countries and businesses can act in the face of these risks.

Unsurprisingly, one of the big changes between this year and last, in terms of risks, has been brought about by the COVID-19 coronavirus pandemic. The risk posed by infectious diseases is now ranked at number one, while in 2020 it came in 10th place.

Widespread effects

"The immediate human and economic costs of COVID-19 are severe," the report says. "They threaten to scale back years of progress on reducing global poverty and inequality and further damage social cohesion and global cooperation."

For those reasons, the pandemic demonstrates why infectious diseases hits the top of the impact list. Not only has COVID-19 led to widespread loss of life, it is holding back economic development in some of the poorest parts of the world, while amplifying wealth inequalities across the globe.

At the same time, there are concerns the fight against the pandemic is taking resources away from other critical health challenges - including a disruption to measles vaccination programmes.

How America will collapse?

 

A soft landing for America 40 years from now? Don't bet on it. The demise of the United States as the global superpower could come far more quickly than anyone imagines. If Washington is dreaming of 2040 or 2050 as the end of the American Century, a more realistic assessment of domestic and global trends suggests that in 2025, just 15 years from now, it could all be over except for the shouting.

Despite the aura of omnipotence most empires project, a look at their history should remind us that they are fragile organisms. So delicate is their ecology of power that, when things start to go truly bad, empires regularly unravel with unholy speed: just a year for Portugal, two years for the Soviet Union, eight years for France, 11 years for the Ottomans, 17 years for Great Britain, and, in all likelihood, 22 years for the United States, counting from the crucial year 2003.

Future historians are likely to identify the Bush administration's rash invasion of Iraq in that year as the start of America's downfall. However, instead of the bloodshed that marked the end of so many past empires, with cities burning and civilians slaughtered, this twenty-first century imperial collapse could come relatively quietly through the invisible tendrils of economic collapse or cyberwarfare.

Full article > https://www.salon.com/2010/12/06/america_collapse_2025/

All Lives Matter

 

Traveling This Summer? Here’s What You Should Know About the Delta Variant.

The Delta Variant

 

What are we facing with the new Covid variants?

 

What's the concern about the new COVID-19 variants? Are they more contagious?

Answer From Daniel C. DeSimone, M.D.

Viruses constantly change through mutation. When a virus has one or more new mutations it’s called a variant of the original virus. Currently, several variants of the virus (SARS-CoV-2) that causes coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) are creating concern in the U.S. These variants include:

• Delta (B.1.617.2). This variant is now the most common COVID-19 variant in the U.S. It’s nearly twice as contagious as earlier variants and might cause more severe illness. The greatest risk of transmission is among unvaccinated people. But fully vaccinated people with breakthrough infections accompanied by symptoms can also spread the illness to others. This variant also might reduce the effectiveness of some monoclonal antibody treatments and the antibodies generated by a COVID-19 vaccine.
• Alpha. (B.1.1.7). This COVID-19 variant appears to spread more easily, with about a 50% increase in transmission compared to previous circulating variants. This variant also might have an increased risk of hospitalization and death.
• Gamma (P.1). This variant reduces the effectiveness of some monoclonal antibody medications and the antibodies generated by a previous COVID-19 infection or a COVID-19 vaccine.
• Beta (B.1.351). This variant appears to spread more easily, with about a 50% increase in transmission compared to previous circulating variants. It also reduces the effectiveness of some monoclonal antibody medications and the antibodies generated by a previous COVID-19 infection or COVID-19 vaccine.

While research suggests that COVID-19 vaccines are slightly less effective against the variants, the vaccines still appear to provide protection against severe COVID-19. For example:

• Early research from the U.K. suggests that, after full vaccination, the Pfizer-BioNTech COVID-19 vaccine is 88% effective at preventing symptomatic COVID-19 virus caused by the delta variant. The vaccine is 96% effective at preventing severe disease with the COVID-19 virus caused by the delta variant. The research also showed that the vaccine is 93% effective at preventing symptomatic COVID-19 virus caused by the alpha variant.
• Early research from Canada suggests that, after one dose, the Moderna COVID-19 vaccine is 72% effective at preventing symptomatic COVID-19 virus caused by the delta variant. One dose of the vaccine is also 96% effective at preventing severe disease with the COVID-19 virus caused by the delta variant.
• The Janssen/Johnson & Johnson COVID-19 vaccine is 85% effective at preventing severe disease with the COVID-19 virus caused by the delta variant, according to data released by Johnson & Johnson.

Currently, the CDC and the FDA state that people in the U.S. who have been fully vaccinated don’t need a vaccine booster. This is because fully vaccinated people are protected from severe disease and death with the COVID-19 virus, including from COVID-19 variants. Most COVID-19 hospitalizations and deaths are among people who are unvaccinated. However, COVID-19 vaccine manufacturers continue to research and test booster doses.

With

Daniel C. DeSimone, M.D.

SARS-CoV-2

SARS-CoV-2

 

Here's a link to my "Niko in Mazatlán" blog.

 

 Mazatlan Sinaloa is a beautiful resort city right up the beach from Puerto Vallarta, enjoy.

"Niko in Mazatlan"