Tuesday, September 11, 2018

You don't need to research the people of the world or the comos

 10 curses of the analytical thinker, search yourself and come to terms with all things. "You are everything and everything is you".
 How can I make this claim? Be you an evolutionist or creationist, all things began from one single point and event.




 The average person may envision IT as the home of the geek. I prefer to think of IT as the kingdom of the analytical thinker. Analytical thinkers, or left-brain thinkers, are straight-line thinkers. Logic, not emotion, rules in the land of the analytical. The very traits that make an analytical person poor with people make them good with computers. And that is perhaps why IT is loaded with socially inept information junkies who would prefer to hang out by themselves instead of attending a party.

I am a highly analytical person myself. This has served me well in my analyst/programmer jobs over the years. But I have also experienced the many downsides of being analytical. Perhaps you have experienced one or more of these curses of the analytical thinker yourself.

Note: This article is also available as a PDF download.

1: Information addict
Analytical thinkers just can't get enough information. They devour Web pages about everything from the weather to the latest high tech gadget. They are gluttons for online discussions, but they're more often lurkers than participants. They have voracious appetites for facts and figures of any kind. They head straight for the specs page when shopping for anything more technologically sophisticated than an alarm clock. The siren call of the Internet cries out, "Step right up to the buffet -- all the information you can eat for one low price".

I can understand how this behavior might be really annoying to a family member. Please understand it is natural for humans to seek after information -- just not as compulsively as the analytical thinker seeks it. Come to think of it, this propensity for information binging might explain the swelled heads of a few IT personnel I have encountered over the years.

2: Vacillatory
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Most people see only one side of a controversial issue. Not the analytical thinker. To him, every issue has pros and cons. To him, the glass can be both half full and half empty at the same time. The analytical will inevitably be known as Dr. Doom to some and the eternal optimist to others. Being both a pessimist and an optimist gives the impression to friends that the analytical is wishy-washy, assuming he has any friends.

3: Indecisive
Because the analytical likes to gather as many facts as possible before making an informed decision, he may be perceived by others as being indecisive. The phrase "lead or get off the pot" could apply to the analytical manager who is so busy gathering information that he often overlooks the value of a quick, definitive decision.

4: Insensitive
I was once explaining parts of a client/server system to Mark, one of our mainframe guys. I pointed to the screen and said something like, "As you can see right here..." There was only one problem with that gesture and statement: Mark was totally blind. I was so embarrassed that I froze and said nothing. Had Mark been able to see he would have seen a flushed face with perspiration beginning to form at the hairline. This kind of "foot in mouth" behavior isn't that unusual for an analytical. I now realize that I should have had the courtesy to acknowledge my gaffe and apologize, but words failed me at the time. It may be more than 15 years late, but Mark please accept this apology for my insensitivity.

5: Habitual
"You want me to do what-- skip lunch? Are you kidding?" Missing lunch to complete some inane pet project for my manager was physically upsetting. My blood pressure rose. My stress hormones rose. Yes, I was angry. Stand well clear of a hypoglycemic logician when sustenance has been withheld!

It can be hard to for analyticals to break their habits. They prefer the predictable, daily routine and are resistant to change. A left-brain thinker may lack motivation when starting a new project, but once started, they are like a persistent bulldog working to complete the project. It's not that they can't accept change; analyticals would just prefer it not intrude upon their comfort zone

6: Socially inept
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I once told a young lady who I was friends with that she was overweight. Well, she did ask. I never got a chance to tell her that it, the weight, was in all the right places. Analyticals take matters literally -- too literally. It is not the intention of the analytical to be critical but rather to provide an honest assessment, although it is almost always perceived as criticism. Unfortunately for the well-intentioned analytical, people don't like an "honest assessment" of their looks, behavior, general hygiene, or body fat index. The irony is that these socially oblivious, albeit honest assessors usually don't take criticism well themselves.

7: Skeptical
"You can fool some of the people all of the time, and all of the people some of the time, but you cannot fool all of the people all of the time." Abraham Lincoln is supposed to have said this. Politicians, of all people, know that it's hard to fool a logical thinker. If you want to sell anything to left-brain thinkers, you'd better explain why they need it. An analytical needs facts, not feelings or persuasive platitudes.

If you are a manager trying to convince a team of programmers that a project can be completed two months ahead of schedule, you'd better come armed with facts to support how such a miracle can be achieved. The pushback you are almost certain to receive is a predictable response from the cynical analytical.

8: Poor marketers
The very thing that makes analyticals good product reviewers is what makes them poor at the sales pitch. They thoroughly and accurately note both the positive and negative attributes of the product they are reviewing. One of the important skills needed to land a job is self promotion. While others may exaggerate their positive traits, the analytical person does not. Stating that you prefer working with computers rather than people may be an honest and unbiased analysis but is perceived as a black mark by the interviewer. I know I am weak at promoting myself. I have worked at improving my marketing skills. But if I could get away with it, I would hire a marketing specialist for my next job interview!

9: Politically incorrect
When I write I try to address the very real possibility that there might actually be personages of the female persuasion reading my musings. I try to throw in at least one" he or she" in recognition of this. The truth is that I put readability ahead of political correctness. Right or wrong, I believe that including references to both genders is tedious for the patient reader. So ladies, please forgive my political incorrectness. I am indeed honored to have you as a guest.

10: Loners
We analyticals would rather spend time alone with a good book or movie than with people. It's not that we dislike people, per se. We just find them boring, uninspiring, and mundane. To the all seeing and all knowing analytical, the average person is like the emperor in the story "The Emperor's New Clothes"-- there's nothing there. I mean, really, when was the last time you found someone who wanted to discuss the theory of relativity or the law of diminishing marginal returns?

The bottom line
Sure, the analytical thinker can appear to be cold, insensitive, and logical, somewhat akin to the personality of Mr. Spock, but the world needs these attributes. After all, it would take only one analytical lemming to save the others from mythological disaster by telling his friends, "Hey guys, I don't think this cliff diving idea is so good after all."

Every curse is a blessing in disguise. Because analytical thinkers like information in tabular format, I give you the 10 blessings for the aforementioned curses:



Each curse can be viewed as a blessing.
Give your favorite analytical person a break the next time you want to scream at him. The characteristics you find so annoying do have positive benefits to society.

Author's Note:  While these traits may apply in part or in whole to me and other analytical people, we are all complex creatures. It is not my intention to imply that such a simplistic view applies to all analytical thinkers.

I'm selling my like new Sony a6000

I'm parting with my Sony a6000 "or" Fuji Fine Pix for $400 (We could make a deal if you wanted both, I like RC's and DJI products).
I being somewhat a perfectionist ordered a new telephoto lens for the a6000 that arrives in two days replacing the scratched original.

*With my lifestyle I need to go "GoPro".











Your answer to this question may be the most important answer of your life

 "If" you believe that some sort of "population control or depopulation measures are in place", wouldn't the enviromental standards "or lack of standards" that the Trump administration are implementing or not implementing make sense?


Obsolete And Outdated Technology That People Still Use Today


In this day and age, we have so many great gadgets at our disposal. There are smartphones, computers, 4K HD television sets, and way more. It is a great time to be alive if you like technology.
Despite all these incredible gadgets, some people still prefer to do things to old-fashioned way. After all, why get a computer when a typewriter will work just fine? When it comes to data storage, why buy a flash drive when you could just get a floppy disk? When it comes to mobile devices, why get a smartphone when you could get use a PDA?
Even though most people you know use modern technology, there are still some people who use outdated tech. In fact, there might be someone reading this article on a device that is over 20 years old.
There are some people who want to use outdated technology. Some people like using old technology because they are used to it. Other people cling on to the technology because they really like nostalgia, and there are also some cases where the older technology is simply more cost effective than the new technology.
There are many benefits to using old technology. One area is aesthetics, which is why some people seek out older technology. In many ways, social media has offered people to ability to connect with other users who still have old technology.
Here are 20 examples of outdated technology that people still use today. Do you still use any of these gadgets?

Are over-the-counter medications safe for my dog?

 If you love your pet like I love mine, we do everything to keep them in the best health possible. 

RIP Demascus

Our dogs are part of the family. They keep us company, play games with us, and provide emotional support. In other words, they are almost human, so it’s understandable that we reach for human medications when they feel poorly. Before you share the contents of your medicine cabinet with your dog, here are some tips regarding common over-the-counter medications.

1. Antihistamines. Benadryl (diphenhydramine), Zyrtec (cetirizine), and Claritin (loratadine) are commonly used antihistamines that relieve allergy symptoms or counteract allergic reactions. Antihistamines are usually safe but make some dogs drowsy and others hyperactive. OTC antihistamine preparations may contain other ingredients such as decongestants that are not safe for dogs. Read the label carefully to assure that the product only contains antihistamine.

2. Tylenol, Ibuprofen, buffered aspirin. Tylenol (Acetaminophen) and Ibuprofen are not safe for dogs. EVER! Buffered aspirin is a bit safer but even the coated tablets may upset your dog’s stomach. Aspirin has also been associated with increased bleeding risk. If your dog is achy, feverish, or shows signs of arthritis, ask your veterinarian for an anti-inflammatory medication specifically designed for dogs.

3. Dramamine. Used to combat motion sickness, Dramamine is relatively safe and can be used if you are in a pinch, but there are canine-specific medications that work faster and last longer.

4. Hydrogen peroxide. An oldie that’s a good addition to any first aid kit. Hydrogen peroxide can be used topically to clean out a superficial flesh wound and can also be given orally to induce vomiting if your dog ingests something he shouldn’t (i.e., your medications, rodenticides, toxic plants). Vomiting may cause more harm than good, so call your veterinarian before you give your dog an oral dose of hydrogen peroxide.

5. Pepto-Bismol. This common medicine cabinet occupant can be dosed at 1 teaspoon for 5-10 pounds of body weight to treat both diarrhea and vomiting. But if your dog vomits up the Pepto-Bismol, call your veterinarian.

6. Imodium. This medication is a good treatment for diarrhea and should be safe for your dog if dosed at 1 mg per 20 pounds of body weight. Only give one dose. If the diarrhea isn’t resolved, check with your veterinarian. Accurate diagnosis of the cause will allow targeted treatment of the problem.

7. Kaopectate. Here’s another anti-diarrheal that’s pretty safe and also soothes upset stomachs. But at a dose of 1 ml per pound a large dog has to swallow a lot of Kaopectate!

8. Cough medications. Many OTC cough preparations contain ingredients that are relatively safe for dogs; however, coughs may be a sign of a more serious problem like heartworms, cardiac disease, or respiratory infections. It’s best to have your coughing dog examined before giving a human preparation.

9. Pepcid AC (famotidine) and Tagamet (cimetidine). These medications are used by lots of people to treat or prevent heartburn. They work on dogs, too. By decreasing the production of gastro-intestinal acids, they can make both dogs and dog owners feel better. So, if your dog grabs your bag of potato chips and gets a tummy ache, reach for one of these OTC preparations. It’s OK to use them intermittently for dietary indiscretions, but if your dog’s stomach issues persist, see your veterinarian.

10. Artificial tears. If your dog squints or blinks excessively, he may have dry eyes or could have a bit of dust or debris in them. Even the tiniest speck in your eye is annoying and dry eyes are irritating. Sometimes a little lubricating eye drop is just the ticket to make those peepers feel more comfortable. But if your dog continues to squint or blink, bring him to the doctor right away. He may have an eye infection, a scratch on his cornea, or a foreign body that needs to be removed. Also, if his eyes look red or swollen, or if you notice a discharge, see your veterinarian immediately. Quick response time will relieve your dog’s discomfort and may prevent permanent vision loss.

11. Steroid sprays, gels, and creams. OTC steroid preparations contain a lower percentage of active ingredients than prescription steroids and are usually very safe. The upside is that they decrease the itchiness of insect bites and hot spots. The downside is that steroids can delay healing especially if the wound is infected. If your dog’s booboo doesn’t look better after a couple of applications, have it evaluated.

12. Topical antibiotic ointment. Neosporin is a common topical antibiotic used on minor cuts and scrapes. This ointment is pretty safe in dogs and should be in every first aid kit. Verify that the ointment only contains antibiotic and not steroids, which can actually delay healing. Make sure to clean your dog’s wound before applying the antibiotic ointment and cover the wound so your dog doesn’t lick the medicine off.

13. Anti-fungal sprays, gels, and creams. Most fungal infections are too complicated to be successfully treated with OTC products; however, you may use them until you can get your dog to a veterinary clinic. Since some fungal infections can be transmitted from pets to humans, it’s doubly important to treat them quickly and effectively.

14.  Mineral oil. This relatively benign liquid has a variety of uses. You can place a couple of drops in your dog’s eyes before giving him a bath to avoid irritation from soap. You can also give it orally to relieve minor bouts of constipation. If your dog doesn’t have a bowel movement within 24 hours, if he starts vomiting, or if he exhibits pain, consult your veterinarian.

Check in before you check out at the drugstore.
It’s best to talk to your veterinary health care professional before giving any over-the-counter medications to your dog for several reasons. First, since human and canine doses are different, you need to ask about the correct amount to administer. Secondly, drug interactions can be dangerous so your veterinarian should review your dog’s medical record to prevent any adverse events. It’s unwise to be lulled into a false sense of security by assuming that drugs are safe just because they can be purchased without a prescription.

This client information sheet is based on material written by: Lynn Buzhardt, DVM
© Copyright 2016 LifeLearn Inc. Used and/or modified with permission under license.
Are over-the-counter medications safe for my dog?

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Giving Pills to Cats
Giving your cat a pill can be a challenge even for the most experienced veterinarian! The easiest way to give your cat a pill is to hide the pill in food. This usually works best if the pill is hidden in a small amount of tuna, salmon, yogurt or cream cheese.

Giving Injections to Cats
Certain medical conditions can be controlled by the use of drugs that are only available in an injectable format. Two of these conditions are diabetes mellitus, which is controlled by daily insulin injections, and certain allergies, which are controlled by regular injections of allergenic extracts.

Giving Liquid Medication to Cats
The easiest way to give your cat liquid medication is to mix it in with some canned food. To ensure that your cat swallows all of the medication, it is best to mix it into a small amount of canned food that you feed by hand, rather than mixing it into a full bowl of food that the cat may not completely eat.


Monday, September 10, 2018

*If only

 If only I could pay a psychologist to go through this blog and observe my interests from beginning to end, oh boy, It would certainly interesting to listen to his thoughts.
 In any event, I'm all packed and ready to go, if the posts seem to slow down you'll gather the reasons why.


Black Leader? I'm glad leaders are for those that need to be led

Al Sharpton sued for $1.75m over claims he swindled trucker who asked for help with discrimination case out of $16,000



  • Reggie Anders Sr. is suing the outspoken preacher for $1.75 in damages
  • He claims Sharpton took $16,000 to help him with his discrimination dispute with Verizon
  • But Anders says the reverend's promises to promote the case in the media and arrange mediation meetings were never carried out
  • He was later shocked to read allegations by the New York Post that Sharpton received thousands in donations from Verizon
  • When confronted, Sharpton said he has 'no idea' who Anders was
Civil rights leader Rev. Al Sharpton has been accused of swindling an Arizona trucker out of $16,000 after he agreed to take on his discrimination case, according to a lawsuit.
Reggie Anders Sr. is suing the outspoken preacher after he claims Sharpton took no action in his discrimination dispute with Verizon, the New York Post reports.
Anders claims that he agreed to pay Sharpton $16,000 - in cash - in exchange for him publicizing the dispute in the media and on his weekly radio broadcast, as well as setting up mediation meetings with the communications giant.
It was only later he read a report in the New York Post claiming that the preacher, and his National Action Network (NAN), received thousands of dollars in donations from Verizon and other large corporations in what the newspaper alleged what 'protection money'. 
Firms that didn't pay up were threatened with bad press or boycotts, it reported last year.
'He's a crook, he's a fraud, and that's all he is,'Anders told the Post. 'He didn't do anything he promised. Absolutely nothing.' 
Anders says that when he called Sharpton to confront him about his lack of action, and links with Verizon, that the civil rights leaders was furious.
'He said people write stuff about him all the time,' Anders said. 'Then for a year and a half he strung
Representatives for Sharpton deny the claims which they have branded 'untrue and frivolous'. 
Anders was advised to get in touch with Sharpton last year by his own minister, the Rev. David Wade of Phoenix, when his 2009 case against Verizon - who he claims were in breach of contract and discriminated against him - after his suit was thrown out in 2014.
 You'll have to finish this one on your own, my boat is starting to smell funny and my craptop has some brown stuff coming out of it.


Hurricane Florence Will Hit East Coast as a 'Very Scary' Major Storm This Week


*People often tease "preppers" yet they're never teasing in these situations. I was tempted to say something about your president, I'm human and have my ignorant moments.

The Southeastern United States is bracing for Hurricane Florence.
The hurricane’s center is expected to affect Bermuda and the Bahamas on Tuesday and Wednesday, and to hit North Carolina on Thursday, USA Todayreported.
North CarolinaSouth Carolina and Virginia have all declared states of emergency, AccuWeather reported.
On Monday, the Weather Channel tweeted, “#Hurricane #Florence is rapidly intensifying. Now with 105 mph maximum sustained winds. Expected to become a Cat. 3 hurricane today.”
The coast could receive water as high as 15 feet, and inland areas could see up to 20 inches of rainfall, according to CNN’s Chad Myers.



How to Deal with an Alcoholic

 *Personally I simply leave them alone, people don't stop drinking and or getting high until "they" want to. *I can't bring myself to care about a person "more" than they care about themselves.


Learning how to deal with an alcoholic is something no one is taught in school. Dealing with an alcoholic isn't even something people think about until they find themselves caring about, or living with, an alcoholic. But alcoholism is a chronic disease that left untreated, will continue to hurt the alcoholic and those around them and learning how to deal with an alcoholic can improve the alcoholic's chance for successful recovery.

How to Deal with an Alcoholic - Stop Alcoholic Denial

Denial is a term used to indicate the unwillingness or inability of a person to admit to some truth, in this case alcoholism. For example, an alcohol addictmay vehemently disagree with concerns of those living with the alcoholic that he is drinking too much, in spite of the fact that he has been charged with driving under the influence of alcohol three times in one month.
But denial is not just something seen in the alcoholic, denial is also common in those living with an alcoholic.
One of the reasons alcoholics continue to function while drinking and stay in denial is because the family and friends refuse to admit to dealing with an alcoholic. Because there is stigma attached to the term "alcoholic," loved ones want to deny that they are living with an alcoholic. However, admitting to a problem is the only way to start dealing with an alcoholic.

Ways to Remove the Denial Around Living with an Alcoholic:

  • Admit that you are living with an alcoholic and that it is a problem.
  • Clearly look at the behaviors, emotions and physical symptoms of the alcoholic. Admit that they are due to alcoholism and not another ailment.
  • Do not deny the destructive actions of the alcoholic.
  • Shed the guilt and shame associated with living with an alcoholic - the alcoholic's disease and actions are not your fault.
  • Do not get rid of the alcohol and pretend it wasn't there.
  • Understand there is nothing you can do to stop alcoholic behaviors - alcoholism is a disease and not a character flaw or poor judgment on the part of the alcoholic.

How to Deal with an Alcoholic - Admit to the Effects of Living with an Alcoholic

A huge amount of harm comes from living with an alcoholic. Refusing to deny the alcoholism also means admitting to the effects that living with an alcoholic, or caring for an alcoholic, has on you and your family. Dealing with an alcoholic also means dealing with alcoholism's effects in an honest way.
How to deal with the effects of living with (or caring for) an alcoholic:
  • Admit that living with an alcoholic is hurting you and your family.
  • Acknowledge the effects alcoholism is having on the alcoholic and those around them.
  • Talk about how you feel about the alcoholic's behaviors. Allow others to do the same.
  • Be honest about your feelings with respect and do not threaten, bribe or make overly emotional appeals which may increase the alcoholic's guilt.

How to Deal with an Alcoholic - Stop Enabling the Alcoholic

The term "enabling" is used to refer to any action used in support of the alcoholic's behavior. Dealing with an alcoholic may seem impossible when the alcoholic denies there is a problem and it may seem easier to just give the alcoholic what they need to go on with the day, but enabling will never stop alcoholic behaviors. The alcoholic must make their own choices and face the consequences of those choices without the help of those living with the alcoholic.
Dealing with an alcoholic by not enabling the alcoholic in the following ways:
  • Do not make excuses for the alcoholic.
  • Do not take over the responsibilities of the alcoholic.
  • Do not cover up the actions, or the consequences of the actions, of the alcoholic.
  • Do not supply the alcoholic with alcohol.
  • Do not drink with the alcoholic.
  • Do not argue with the alcoholic when he is intoxicated.
  • Do not allow the alcoholic to pull people into his drama. For example, if the alcoholic is arrested for drinking and driving, do not try to get him out of it. The alcoholic created the problem and the alcoholic has to find a solution.

How to Deal with an Alcoholic - Get Help for Yourself and Those Living with an Alcoholic

There are many families living with an alcoholic who refuses help. In these cases, it's useful for the family members to seek their own help when dealing with an alcoholic.
People who can help those living with an alcoholic include:
  • Therapists
  • Social workers
  • Support groups, like Al-Anon or Alateen
  • Trusted friends or members of a faith community

Do you wish to get rid of your old electronics

 Let me give you a little warning, you won't be getting what your device or electronic is worth but it is an alternative if you're in a pinch.


America’s Collective Normalcy Bias


“The reason why the totalitarian regimes can get so far toward realizing a fictitious, topsy-turvy world is that the outside nontotalitarian world, which always comprises a great part of the population of the totalitarian country itself, indulges also in wishful thinking and shirks reality in the face of real insanity just as much as the masses do in the face of the normal world.”
– Hannah Arendt, 1951

We are a nation of Godwin’s Law (or at least some distorted version of it). Any time someone invokes an analogy to Nazi Germany, no matter how educated the person or how salient the similarities, we collectively and summarily dismiss the argument. The analogy always strikes as a form of intellectual and rhetorical laziness. It is viewed as a fear tactic, and thus anyone who proposes it, at best, need not be taken seriously or, at worst, is a hyper-partisan crackpot. Surely it can’t happen here.

The dismissal is itself lazy. People who invoke the analogy are not actually arguing that the systematic execution of Jewish people in camps is on America’s political horizon. Rather, most are warning us about more abstract similarities. Those similarities are worth considering carefully since, as the analogy suggests, something abstract and implausible can lead to concrete atrocities. And when they do, people wonder how it happened and search for a definitive point at which their world crossed over from demagogic threats to real horror. Was there a single moment of moral choice in which one of the options was pure moral depravity? What we learn from Nazi Germany is that there is no definitive point. There were people sounding the alarm from the beginning. Unfortunately they were viewed as hyper-partisan crackpots.



The dismissal is also a ‘hasty generalization’: it draws a broad conclusion from an insufficient set of evidence. There are plenty of weak Hitler analogies. They are easy to parody in conversation (“ya know, the Nazis had pieces of flare that they made the jews wear.”). But it is gross illogic to leap from the weak analogies in conversation to the conclusion that we can dismiss all Nazi Germany analogies. If an American politician proposed making America Judenrein, wouldn’t Hitler analogies be an acceptable part of our condemnation of this person?


Why do we dismiss the analogies? The answer perhaps has to do with some form of pride. We as a nation are too good to fall into such evil. America would never kill large numbers of innocent people on the basis of race or religion! Those actions are relegated to the barbaric ancient times of the 1940s. Or the pride might be personal. I myself am too good and reflective. Surely I wouldn’t stand by and watch (let alone participate) in killing or harming innocent people. For instance, I would never be a slave owner, a segregationist, or someone contributing to mass incarceration! Hannah Arendt suggested that personal confidence in one’s probity is usually never tested in ways that could lead to the type of condemnation we give the Nazis. We are simply lucky not to be given historically significant moral choices. We know from history that when faced with those choices, many normal and decent people fail. We might well be facing those choices now. Time will tell. But while we wait for history to judge us, perhaps we can fill our time with some honest moral self-reflection.

Another way to explain the dismissal of the analogies is through a common cognitive failure: the normalcy bias. We underestimate the possibility of disaster, especially when the disaster is unprecedented. The normalcy bias comes through in our “normalizing.” If you suggest that America qua stable democracy is facing an existential crisis, you immediately place yourself on the crackpot fringes. Keith Olbermann, who is consciously trying to overcome normalcy bias in “The Resistance” video series, is being placed in the looney bin. If something has never happened before, we wrongly assume that it will not happen. When it does happen, we contort it into something normal. We normalize it by explaining it retroactively, by making it an effect of a familiar cause, a past that, in hindsight, holds still long enough for us to conjure up a rationalization of how we got here from there.


We do not do it intentionally or consciously. Even when we recognize that we have done it, we continue to do it. The future will be like the past. The sun will rise tomorrow because the sun has risen every day so far. If I predict that the sun will not rise at a certain point in the future, even if I have fairly compelling evidence, the initial epistemic urge is to dismiss me. We trust that urge (and label it ‘conventional wisdom’) within the realm of politics. If a US president has never become an authoritarian in the past, then it will not happen in the future. Q.E.D.

When we state it explicitly we see how absurd it is. The normalcy bias was on display all throughout the campaign.

“Trump won’t be taken seriously as a candidate.”
“There is no way Trump will win a primary state.”
“He couldn’t possibly win the nomination.”
“He couldn’t win the general election.”

Why did so many people say these things? Typically they had no reason other than the fact that something like it had never happened before. They knew on some rational level that it was possible, but that possibility was not reflected in their thinking, speaking, and writing. The past was meant to be a good guide to the future. The sun always rises.

There is another possible psychological explanation: perhaps people discounted the possibility of Trump’s rise because the potential reality of an avowed pussy-grabber becoming president was so disturbing that they could not countenance the thought. They assigned it a lower probability as a defense mechanism. But again, we have a responsibility—if at least to ourselves alone—not to believe what soothes our sensibilities or aligns with our preferences. It is more comforting to believe that the sun will rise, and so we have a temptation to ignore evidence to the contrary. Wishful thinking is dangerous, especially in the realm of politics, where it is people fighting to prevent the worst from happening that prevents the worst from happening.

It is time to start thinking clearly and honestly. Our inductive inferences need to be based on a broader conception of the past, one that includes atrocities and pogroms, even if our pride tells us to ignore them.    

We have opportunities to improve each day. What are the new predictions?

          “Trump cannot severely undermine American democracy.”
          “Trump will not transform America into a Russia or the Philippines.”
          “Trump will not start a devastating war through his stunning ineptitude.
          “Trump will allow the 2020 election to take place.”

Surely he will, right? But we must ask ourselves why we believe it. When we reflect honestly we find no good answer. We find assumptions that American traditions hold with unbreakable strength. Traditions, we must ask, like not insulting respected war heroes? Like not mocking a reporter with a disability? Like releasing any tax returns? Like not admitting to and bragging about sexual assault? Like not saying that a sexual assault accuser is not attractive enough for him to assault? Traditions and customs like a respect for facts and reality, respect for national intelligence agencies, respect for the democratic process, and respect for the press have been attacked and undermined by a man who is now the most powerful person in the world.

We must stop basing predictions on these traditions. They are comforting and it is nice to believe that they are ironclad. But they have been slipping away. What justification do we have to think that our most cherished traditions will remain? our most cherished institutions? democracy itself? Our answers, so far, are rooted in cognitive biases.


We should adopt a precautionary principle:

Since Trump’s presidency may lead to unacceptable and unprecedented damage that is plausible but uncertain, actions should be taken to avoid or diminish that harm.

In other words, where there are threats of serious and unprecedented damage, lack of conclusive reasons to think Trump will not cause such damage should itself be a reason to fight to prevent the damage. (My phrasing is parallel to the UN’s Rio Declaration.) If the reasons are not forthcoming, we must take the abnormal and destructive possibilities very seriously. We cannot continue to close our eyes and hope for the best. We cannot wait for the damage before acting. Do we have good reason to think that Trump will allow the 2020 election to take place? The answer is no. In fact, everything is in perfect position for him to stand behind the presidential podium and say, “We must postpone the election until we can figure out what the hell is going on.” So we must fight adamantly to ensure that our tradition of regular and binding elections stays in place. Important American institutions, as we have seen, survive largely through convention and the respect leaders have for convention. In the absence of that respect, we have no reason to believe that the institutions will survive. The principle tells us to be proactive, even if it makes us look like crackpots.

I realize that many people can't be as clinical as myself

 As I walk my path of life and someone shares information I take it into account "lightly" because in most instances I can't search for at "least" two more sources to quantify the statement(s).
Even as I sit at my craptop and have access to three sources, the information still has to be taken lightly. People were incorrect about the earth being flat, the sun orbiting the earth that iron couldn't float and a trillion more misconceptions.


 Listening, reading, gathering information and discerning the truth "for yourself" is a delicate art.
With no priori experience an individual would be wise to consider the source, consider hidden agendas, consider the mental aptitude of the speaker or writer, consider information loss, consider the speaker's take on life or his/her spin, I even have to consider my ability to grasp what has been shared. This doesn't even take into account that the speaker/writer believes vehemently in something completely false.
 "Hearing" and "listening" are only relative, not sequential. I.e. A monkey hears you yet that doesn't in any way prove that he can discern what you just said. Repetition of a command to evoke a specific response has nothing to do with cognitive listening. I would wager money that you speak to monkeys every day.
 To top this menagerie off, we inadvertently become monkeys attempting to respond intelligently to some monkey shit.
 This is only a 5 minute dive into the subject of "listening" and or reading, do you feel mislead at times? You may wish to adjust your listening settings?

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