In the history of mankind world superpowers have exchanged hands on numerous occasions and do you know who the last ones to see and or accept the change was? The citizens of the nation that was being replaced. "It just can't happen to us, we're the Billy bad-asses of the planet"!
As things stand now, Western Civilization remains in a position of international dominance. With the Soviet Union no longer a threat, the one remaining superpower, the United States, in conjunction with Britain, France, and to a lesser extent Japan, is able to exert influence on the affairs of the world in a way that affects the security and well-being of every other civilization. Moreover, while this perception of the current state of the world is accurate, there is also another view that suggests that Western influence is in a state of decline. From this vantage point, it seems that the West’s victory over the Soviet Union required huge expenditures of resources, talent, and energy. As a result, Western countries are now characterized by slow economic growth and social disintegration (as evidenced by the growing use of illegal drugs, single parent families, and exploding crime rates), stagnating populations, huge government deficits, and a declining work ethic. Moreover, the economic hegemony of the West is now being effectively challenged by China, Korea, India, and Japan. Additionally, the Trump Administration's positions relative to Western alliances such as NATO, is currently motivating some European leaders to suggest that Europe may no longer be able to fully rely on American support.
Which of these two pictures of the Western Civilization is accurate? According to Samuel Huntington, both. He believes that whereas Western Civilization will continue to be in a dominant position for many years to come, it is nonetheless in a state of decline. He is convinced that the primacy of Western Civilization is eroding and that, as a result, its power will gradually diminish. Conversely, the Asian Civilizations with China in the lead, are gradually emerging as strong competitors to Western dominance.
Huntington notes that the decline of the West is a slow process that began with a diminishment of Western Civilization’s near total control of key resources, and that it will not proceed in a straight line. For example, in the year 1920, Western countries controlled approximately 25.5 million square miles of the earth’s surface (about half). By 1993, this had dropped to about 12.7 million square miles (the European core, North America, Australia, and New Zealand). In contrast, the territory of Islamic societies grew from 1.8 million square miles in 1920 to 11 million square miles by 1993.
The dynamics of human population growth also suggest a gradual decline in Western power. In 1900, approximately 30% of the world’s human population resided in Western countries, and Western powers ruled about 45% of the people on earth. By 1993, the population of Western nations accounted for only 13% of the world’s total.
In addition to a diminished level of control over land and resources, and a declining level of relative growth in population, Western Civilization is also losing its qualitative advantages as well. While that does not mean that life in the West is getting worse, it does mean that life in many other parts of the world is getting better. Where universal literacy was once uncommon outside the Western nations, many countries now approach almost total literacy. This is also true of health care and life expectancies. The gap between the West and the rest, in almost all areas that impact the quality of life, continues to narrow.
Since the end of World War II, the Western share of the global economy has been in decline. In 1950, 64% of world production occurred in Western nations. By 1980, this had dropped to 49%, and it is estimated that by the year 2013, the West will account for only 30% of the world’s gross production. Additionally, in 1992, the United States had the largest economy in the world. At the time, five of the world’s top ten economies were part of the Western block. By 2020, economists project that only three Western nations will be among the world’s top ten economies.
In the 1920s, the Western world contained the most powerful militaries on earth (by a wide margin). Over the last ninety years, however, the military power of the West, while still very formidable, has declined relative to that of other civilizations (even so, the United States is currently the most powerful military force on earth). Nevertheless, other civilizations now have access to sophisticated weapons (e.g., jet fighters) and weapons of mass destruction. They also have the ability to deliver them. Such weapons tend to be equalizers. After all, China’s immense population would constitute a greater threat if it were not for nuclear deterrents. In 1945, only the United State possessed nuclear strike capabilities. By the mid-1950s, the Soviet Union was also a nuclear power, and in 1964, China acquired nuclear weapons. Currently the “nuclear power club” includes all Western European nations (in one way or another), India, and Pakistan (and though this has not been officially confirmed, open-source information makes it obvious that Israel is also a member of the club). Furthermore, it is likely that Iran and North Korea will probably also soon be able to produce and deliver nuclear weapons.
International terrorism presents a growing threat to international security because terrorists (who often identify with a civilization, but not with any particular nation state) now have access to weapons that are not easily detected or defeated by modern military forces. Therefore, military organizations in many nations are struggling to find effective ways in which to neutralize terrorists before they are able to kill thousands of people and spread havoc. The development of counter-terrorism units able to respond to a wide variety of terrorist attacks is very expensive. As a result, many Western nations are finding the “War on Terror” to be a serious financial burden.
