Wednesday, July 12, 2017

US Economic Outlook: For 2017 and Beyond



Updated June 30, 2017
The U.S. economic outlook is healthy according to the key economic indicators. The most critical indicator is gross domestic product, which measures the nation's production output. The GDP growth rate is expected to remain between the 2 percent to 3 percent ideal range. Unemployment is forecast to continue at the natural rate. There isn't too much inflation or deflation. That's a Goldilocks economy.
President Trump promised to increase economic growth to 4 percent. That's actually faster than is healthy. Growth at that pace leads to an overconfident irrational exuberance. That creates a boom that least to a damaging bust.  Find out what causes these changes in the business cycle.

Overview

U.S. GDP growth will rise to 2.2 percent in 2017. That's slightly better than the 2.1 percent growth in 2016. It's weaker than 2015's growth rate of 2.6 percent. The increase in gross domestic product will drop to 2.1 percent in 2018 and 1.9 percent in 2019. That's according to the most recent forecast released at the Federal Open Market Committee meeting on June 14, 2017.  This forecast begins to take into account the impact of Trump's policies.
The unemployment rate will drop to 4.3 percent in 2017 and 4.2 percent in 2018 and beyond. That's better than the 4.7 percent rate in 2016, and the Fed's 6.7 percent target.
But Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen admits a lot of workers are part-time and would prefer full-time work. Also, most job growth is in low-paying retail and food service industries. Some people have been out of work for so long that they'll never be able to return to the high-paying jobs they used to have.
That means structural unemployment has increased. These traits are unique to this recovery. They also make the unemployment rate seem low. Yellen considers the real unemployment rate to be more accurate. That rate is usually double the widely-reported rate.
Inflation will be 1.6 percent in 2017 and 2.0 percent in 2018 and beyond. These rates are lower than the 2.1 percent rate in 2016. They are higher than the 0.7 percent inflation experienced in 2015. The low rates in those years were caused by declining oil prices. The core inflation rate strips out those volatile gas and food prices. The Fed prefers to use that rate when setting monetary policy. The core inflation rate will be 1.7 percent in 2017, and 2.0 percent in 2018 and beyond. (It's unusual that the core rate is that similar to the regular inflation rate.) Fortunately, the core rate is close to the Fed's 2.0 percent target inflation rate. That gives the Fed room to raise rates to a more normal level. Here's more on the U.S. Inflation Rate History and Forecast.
U.S. manufacturing is forecast to increase faster than the general economy. Production will grow 3 percent in 2017, and 2.8 percent in 2018. Growth will slow to 2.6 percent in 2019 and 2 percent in 2020.
Those forecasts have not yet taken into account President Trump's promises to create more jobs.

Interest Rates

The Federal Open Market Committee raised the fed funds rate to 1.25 percent in June 2017. It expects to raise this interest rate to 1.5 percent by the end of 2017. It will normalize it at 2 percent in 2018 and raise it to 3 percent in 2019. For more, see Current Fed Funds Rate.
The fed funds rate controls short-term interest rates. These include banks' prime rate, the LIBOR, most adjustable-rate and interest-only loans, and credit card rates. Find out how to Protect Yourself from Fed Rate Hikes.
The Fed said it would start selling $4 trillion in Treasuries after the fed funds rate has normalized to about 2.0 percent. The Fed acquired these securities during quantitative easing, which ended in 2014.
When it does start selling them, there will be more supply. That should raise the yield on the 10-year Treasury note. That drives up long-term interest rates, such as fixed-rate mortgages and corporate bonds.
But Treasury yields also depend on demand for the dollar. If demand is high, yields will drop. As the global economy improves, investors have been demanding less of this ultra-safe investment. As a result, long-term and fixed interest rates will rise in 2017 and beyond.  

Oil and Gas Prices

The U.S. Energy Information Administration outlook is from 2017-2040. It predicts crude oil prices will average $55/barrel in 2017. That's for Brent global. West Texas Crude will average around $1/barrel less. The EIA warned that there is still some volatility in the price. It reported that commodities traders believe prices could range between $45/b and $65/b for April 2017 delivery.  Prices will rise to $57/b in 2018. (Source: "Short-Term Energy Outlook," EIA, November 8, 2016.)
A strong dollar continues to depress oil prices. That's because oil contracts are priced in dollars. Oil companies are laying off workers, and some may default on their debt. High-yield bonds funds are doing poorly as a result. For more detail, see What's the Forecast for Oil Prices?
The oil market is still responding to the impact of U.S. shale oil production. That reduced oil prices 25 percent in 2014 and 2015. The good news for the economy is that it also lowered the cost of transportation, food, and raw materials for business. That raised profit margins. It also gave consumers more disposable income to spend. The slight slowdown is because both businesses and families are saving instead of spending. 
By 2020, the average oil price will rise to $76.57/b (in 2015 dollars, which removes the effect of inflation). After that, world demand will start driving oil prices to the equivalent of $104/b in 2030, and $136.21/b in 2040.  By then, the cheap sources of oil will have been exhausted, making crude oil production more expensive. (Source: "Annual Energy Outlook," EIA, July 7, 2016.)

Jobs

The Bureau of Labor Statistics publishes an outlook for U.S. employment each decade. It goes into great detail about each industry and occupation. Overall, the BLS expects total employment to increase by 20.5 million jobs from 2010-2020. While 88 percent of all occupations will experience growth, the fastest growth will occur in healthcare, personal care and social assistance, and construction. Furthermore, jobs requiring a master’s degree will grow the fastest while those that only need a high school diploma will grow the slowest. (Source: "Occupational Outlook Summary," BLS.)
The BLS assumes that the economy will fully recover from the recession by 2020 and that the labor force will return to full employment or an unemployment rate between 4-5 percent. The biggest growth (5.7 million jobs) will occur in healthcare and other forms of social assistance as the American population ages.
The next largest increase (2.1 million jobs) will occur in professional and technical occupations. Most of this is in computer systems design, especially mobile technologies, and management, scientific, and technical consulting. Businesses will need advice on planning and logistics, implementing new technologies, and complying with workplace safety, environmental, and employment regulations.
Other substantial increases will occur in education (1.8 million jobs), retail (1.7 million jobs) and hotel/restaurants (1 million jobs). Another area is miscellaneous services (1.6 million jobs). That includes human resources, seasonal and temporary workers, and waste collection.
As housing recovers, construction will add 1.8 million jobs while other areas of manufacturing will lose jobs due to technology and outsourcing. For more detail, see BLS Outlook on Employment. 

How It Affects You

2017 will be a prosperous year as we continue to say goodbye to the effects of the financial crisis. Be on the lookout for irrational exuberance in the stock market. That usually signals the peak of the business cycle. That means another recession is probably two to three years out. It all depends on whether Trump's tax cuts will create the jobs he promised.
Therefore, the best thing to is to stay relentlessly focused on your financial well-being. Continue to improve your skills and chart a clear course for your career. If you've invested in the stock market, be calm during any pull-back. Plummeting commodity prices, including gold, oil, and coffee, will return to the mean. All in all, a good time to reduce debt, build up your savings, and increase your wealth. 
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A brief message from the owner of Sys Nica

*Good morning,
 I have been asked, "How do I feel about the president and all the turmoils of Washington".
I'm not buying it. I believe that the true powers that be are creating a focal point far from the real agenda.

 To "me" this is no more than a distraction to draw us away from what's not being discussed. This tactic has been used throughout history. Look at 911, we were so focused on being attacked by terrorists that most paid no mind to the hidden agenda which was the Patriot Act.

 Donald Trump was on to something when he coined the phrase, "Fake news". I imagine there is a great deal of fake news yet that is not the root of our current media situation.
 The far more and much broader root is that all news channels have a owner. That owner is, "Left, center or right" minded when it comes to politics and what his / her news entity  reports will always portray his / her base belief.

 I was talking with a professional colleague and he affirmed my stance, "We all forget that we are not right or wrong, we're simply thinking / voicing our interpretation through perception". The problem being that none of us are the center of the universe yet at times we certainly think we are. We can make the rules in that small unknown corner of our minds yet no other living person has to agree or disagree with our egotistical crap. None of us is no more than a flea on a dogs a$$, we're just along for the ride. You think not?

 Who invented the 3 most used devices in your life? You don't know do you? If we can't remember who created the TV, cellphone and A/C - What in the hell makes you think someone will remember you?
 I blog and if it slightly redirects one person's thinking, that's great but here is the "moment of truth" thought for the day: You actually think all your efforts are creating a monumental change? Do yourself a huge favor > Pour a glass of water and be sure to look cosly at the water level in the glass. Stick one finger into the glass and leave it there for a minute or an hour. Now pull your finger out and view the level of fluid in the container once more. Note the difference in the level, that's the same change that your life on earth will most likely make.

 Trump and Washington aren't even worth talking about, it is what it is and I'll focus on myself where I can actually create change.

 Reel in your ego.

 "Niko J"

*Don't mind the tangents.
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Tuesday, July 11, 2017

I didn't forget my software buddies - Github


Learn by doing at Cal Poly with GitHub and Raspberry Pi

Professor Chris Lupo has taught at California Polytechnic State University for eight years and recently revamped his upper-level Architecture course using GitHub Classroom. In this post, he shares his workflow for deeper insight into student work, efficient debugging, and community support.

Open tools lead to a hackable classroom practice

At California Polytechnic State University, the motto is “learn by doing”, so it follows that students learn with real-world tools, rather than with board work and problem sets.
There's evidence of this learning philosophy in the tools teachers choose—particularly in open source projects GitHub Classroom and Raspberry Pi.
In group work, we do a lot with Raspberry Pi and students get into the habit of making sure they push to get it on their other systems, or so their partners can download changes. The flow encourages strong development habits. Push early, push often—that kind of thing.
Chris uses Classroom to distribute starter code and create individual and group assignments.

Diagnose, collaborate, fix: a debugging workflow that doesn’t hurt

Chris uses Classroom, GitHub’s collaboration features, and Raspberry Pi to work with students when they get stuck. Here's a quick overview of his workflow:
Quickly access a student repository. Assignments set up through Classroom automatically add Chris as a collaborator, and the dashboard clearly presents a list of student work.
As soon as students click an “invitation link” from Chris, Classroom creates a new repository for them.
Here’s the output from GitHub Classroom in Chris’s course.
Clone and comment in-context. Students can see where changes need to be made and leaves comments directly in their code.
Test the fix on his own Raspberry Pi.
Push the code back to the student’s repository, with fixes and comments.
This workflow solves the cumbersome task of transferring files. Both instructor and student can work from their own environments, instead of switching between computers.
I can clone their work, connect to the Raspberry Pi that I have access to, and run their code. From there I can work with them directly on their code base to show them what steps to take and how to move beyond their current problem. After we work together, I can push the code back to them when we’re done.
I have access to everybody's code all the time. I've not had that capability prior to using GitHub Classroom.

An active community of teachers helping teachers

When Chris has questions about Git or best practices, he reaches out to the GitHub Education Community for advice from other teachers.
I've also found the community really helpful for support. For example, I learned about a script named orgclone that was really useful for me in repository management.

  Adapt Professor Lupo’s assignments:
Use Raspberry Pi assignments for a university setting:

Speak at GitHub Universe: three weeks left to submit proposals

Katrina is an Open Source Advocate at GitHub. As a frequent speaker and proposal reviewer for conferences like GitHub Universe, she's seen hundreds of speaker proposals—and written a few as well.
GitHub Universe is returning to San Francisco this fall, and we're looking for new voices to lead our breakout sessions. Your stories are unique, and having lived them, you're the best person to share your insights with others. If you're new to speaking, don't let that stop you. We're more interested in your experience solving problems than how many talks you've given.
With our submission deadline approaching on July 28, we're inviting you to share your session idea with us. Speakers will receive an honorarium and travel accommodations to make sure budget isn't a limiting factor in your decision to participate.

How to make your speaker proposal stand out

Here are some tips to keep in mind as you refine your speaker proposal.
Put your audience first.
Identify who can benefit most from your story. Even if it’s a first-person experience, tell it to those individuals in a way that helps them connect with it. Make them feel like they’re a part of your experience by framing it in terms of similar experiences they might have and what they can do with the information you’re sharing.
Set the stakes.
Establish a problem you’re addressing and why people should care. This is separate from the solution. Your audience will only care about a solution if you set up the problem in a way that helps them understand it and apply it to their experiences.
Work towards a solution.
After your audience understands the problem, help them understand how to approach it and what’s novel about your approach. It’s ok if you don’t have it all figured out, but make your experience actionable for others and describe possible solutions.
For more tips, check out Sarah Mei’s “What Your Conference Proposal is Missing”.

A few of my favorite Universe 2016 sessions

There were a lot of memorable sessions last year, but these ones stood out as particularly impactful.
Anjuan Simmons, "Lending Privilege"
Anjuan takes the often divisive topic of privileged and marginalized groups in technology, and puts each audience member on both sides of the divide. He makes the topic relevant to everyone and leaves nobody feeling like they’re to blame. After reframing and providing a place where we can stand together, he helps us look ahead with practical, actionable advice. It's a thoughtful, insightful talk that the audience continued to discuss throughout the conference.
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This isn't a permanent solution, it's temporary fix

*Follow the link, scroll to the bottom of the page and enroll.
https://www.systemsnicaragua.com/hot-new-tech
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We no longer have the numbers of mentally competent people to guide ourselves

*I'm going to catch it for this one yet: There are babies having babies, people can't even feed themselves properly, no one exercises, everyone is running around praying to God but not doing anything else, pharmaceuticals rule our lives, we believe anything the TV portrays, we have no idea how to manage money, people read with little to no comprehension, we allow ourselves to be injected with free government shots, most Americans don't even have a survival strategy, we have highly technical vehicles and when they stop running on the highway - we raise the hood (WTF?), crack heads / pill heads and alcoholics are allowed to reproduce and we're so pathetic that hygiene is something that we think about from time to time. I can continue...

 Why Americans need to re-think their beliefs on socialism
I wont say who this is and most are too stupid to know.

To the editor: The popular definition of “socialism” reflects a worldview in which government takes control of everything, leading to an inevitable failure, as we have seen in the former Soviet Union and some other countries. ("Bernie Sanders has some explaining to do," Op-Ed, Oct. 21)
The fact that many “socialistic” countries are doing well, as we can see in many parts of Europe, and with Canada, does not seem to faze Americans.
What is most stunning is that Americans cannot see that the United States is to a certain degree a socialist country, as Social Security, Medicare, public libraries, the Army, fire and police departments, the freeways and other public programs clearly exemplify.
Those who don't like socialism should stop cashing their Social Security checks and burn their Medicare cards.








Sen. Bernie Sanders, a presidential candidate, is right. The term “socialism” needs to be clarified. Ultimately, Americans need to figure out that government is not the problem, but in a lot of cases it is the solution staring at us.
It's too late for Bernie and now you will pay.

To the editor: When Trump refers to Sanders as a communist, he is displaying his profound ignorance of history and politics. Unfortunately, his followers see the terms “liberal,” “leftist” and “progressive” as also communist.





Contrary to columnist Doyle McManus' assertion, Sanders shouldn't explain what socialism means, but he should make clear he is opposed to all ownership of private property by the state, one-party rule by the proletariat and an uprising of workers to overcome nationalism and capitalism. Sanders has some “'splaining” to do
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Enlisting Technology to Fight Obesity

*After living in C America and SE Asia I arrived back here in Cocoa Beach some 40 odd days ago (My half way point to leaving - Hooray) and what I have witnessed you'll never see anywhere else on the planet. I don't wish to be rude yet a 5 minute walk through Wal-Mart is all it takes.
 I need to share one more thing: Living in NY, NY, I often witnessed old men / women feeding pigeons in the park and quite a few smoked as I do. But do you know what I never saw in my many years of living there? I never saw an old obese man or woman feeding the pigeons.
 Rule number 1 - Breakfast is my biggest meal of the day, they taper off in calories / gain in fiber throughout the rest of my day. (Old Bear Creek, NC. trick)

Introduction
Obesity has recently reached pandemic proportions. As Reuters reported earlier this year, “The percentage of Americans who are obese (with a BMI of 30 or higher) has tripled since 1960, to 34 percent, while the incidence of extreme or “morbid” obesity (BMI above 40) has risen sixfold, to 6 percent.” According to the CDC, major health consequences related to obesity include coronary heart disease, Type 2 diabetes, cancer, hypertension (high blood pressure) and more. The estimated toll of obesity on the U.S. economy has been estimated to be $190 billion. What is especially troublesome is child obesity. Although there is a substantial consensus across the board in the media and the political world regarding the magnitude of the problem, the solution to the problem remains elusive.
This post explores alternative approaches and methods for fighting obesity and highlights the role social tools and technology can play in this battle.
Government Legislation
For example, “The U.S. health care reform law of 2010 allows employers to charge obese workers 30 percent to 50 percent more for health insurance if they decline to participate in a qualified wellness program,” according to the same Reuters report.
New York’s Mayor Bloomberg wants to ban selling sodas and other sugary drinks in servings larger than 16 ounces, convinced doing so is a “way to fight obesity in a city that spends billions of dollars a year on weight-related health problems.”
The key difference between the two initiatives is that while the Obamacare provision is based on statistically proven correlation between obesity and costly weight-related heath prices, Mayor Bloomberg’s initiative seems to have no such correlation. As such, it may penalize a portion of the public that is not obese and chooses to drink larger cups of soda.
Corporate Role
While food processing offers many benefits such as food preservation, financial savings (because it is much cheaper to mass-produce food), and time savings (by reducing the amount of time families spend cooking), it is also the source of the many unhealthy food products on the market today.
This is exactly where corporate responsibility can be demonstrated by major corporate entities that have the power to influence food manufacturers to produce healthier processed foods.
A good example of this type of corporate responsibility has been displayed recently by The Walt Disney Company, which recently announced that “all products advertised on its child-focused television channels, radio stations and web sites” must meet a certain nutritional standard.
Education
Education — especially at a young age — can provide children, and later adults, lifelong tools to eat more healthily. Michelle Obama launched her own campaign against child obesity back in 2010 by encouraging more physical activity and starting an organic White House garden. Since then, she has served as a role model to promote a healthy lifestyle.
Another great role model in the area of healthy nutrition is Chef Jamie Oliver, who was awarded the prestigious TED Prize for creating “a strong, sustainable movement to educate every child about food, inspire families to cook again and empower people everywhere to fight obesity.”
Personal Responsibility
Personal responsibility starts with each one of us that makes a decision to fight family obesity. As part of personal responsibility, we are expected to develop healthy living habits, starting with the selection of healthy food items. Just imagine the positive impact that exercising personal responsibility on a massive scale would have on healthy nutrition. After all, if everyone would only buy healthy products, then companies would stop manufacturing unhealthy products, as there would be no demand for them. The primary challenge with exercising personal responsibility, however, is that successful execution of this commitment is contingent upon consumers’ ability to analyze information on healthy nutrition and select the healthiest products.
With more than tens of thousands of products on average in a typical supermarket, this can be a daunting task. This is where web and mobile technology helps.
Technology to the Rescue
Instead of consumers researching the nutrients and ingredients of each and every product, a nutritional algorithm running on a computer can do it for them. This algorithm, developed by experts based on scientific nutritional research, can analyze a database of food items’ nutrients and ingredients, and recommend healthy options. This algorithm can run on mobile devices and enable consumers to select healthier products in real time.
Several companies have developed algorithms that can guide consumers to make healthy food choices, including Fooducate, ShopWell and wHealthy Solutions. The services offered by these companies also provide information regarding healthier alternatives, and educate consumers on various topics relating to healthy nutrition. For consumers who don’t have access to computers or smartphones, NuVal compresses the data per label into a single number that is presented at the grocery stores on the shelf tag.
While expert rankings are very valuable, in this day and age of social networks, consumers expect to get more than just numbers from the experts. They want to participate in and contribute to the review process to collectively benefit from the wisdom of the user community. Combining expert rankings with communal wisdom has been used quite effectively in a variety of social platforms in other fields such as TripAdvisor, Yahoo Movies, etc. wHealthy Solutions’ FoodSmart is one such social app that enables users to rank “taste” and write their reviews on food items, where they can then be combined with expert rankings.
Conclusion
There is no single silver bullet in fighting obesity. Government legislation, corporate responsibility, education and personal responsibility, combined with web and mobile services, can all help people eat healthy and fight obesity. People who reach a decision to exercise their personal responsibility and develop healthy eating habits for themselves and their families are encouraged to use the web and mobile services to help with planning and shopping for healthy food items. These individuals can also help other families fight obesity by contributing to development of the communal wisdom by writing their product reviews on social platforms.
For more by Michael Segal, click here.
For more healthy living health news, click here.
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