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Why You Should Fear “Slaughterbots”, Lethal autonomous weapons are not science fiction!

 

A Superpower arms race to build killer robots could wipe out humanity if left unchecked, experts fear.

The doomsday warning comes after a UN conference failed to agree a ban on Terminator-style “slaughterbots” – which are being developed by China, Russia and the US.

Major powers are investing billions to create advanced AI weapons that can hunt and strike targets with no input from controllers.

Last year a Turkish-made kamikaze drone made the world’s first autonomous kill on human targets in Libya, a UN report revealed.

But experts warn the technology is advancing so fast, governments and societies have not properly considered the dangers.

They say machines making their own decisions are prone to unpredictable and rapidly spreading errors.

These arise from codes called algorithms which even the programmers don’t always understand and cannot stop going awry.

If AI weapons in the future are armed with biological, chemical or even nuclear warheads, the results could be unintentional Armageddon.

“It is a world where the sort of unavoidable algorithmic errors that plague even tech giants like Amazon and Google can now lead to the elimination of whole cities,” warns Prof James Dawes of Macalester College.

“The world should not repeat the catastrophic mistakes of the nuclear arms race. It should not sleepwalk into dystopia.”

MIT professor Max Tegmark, co-founder of the Future of Life Institute, issued a similarly dire warning this week.

A Turkish-made Kargu-2 drone made the world's first autonomous kill without a human controller last year, a UN report said.

A Turkish-made Kargu-2 drone made the world’s first autonomous kill without a human controller last year, a UN report said.

STM

He told Wired: “The technology is developing much faster than the military-political discussion.

“And we’re heading, by default, to the worst possible outcome.”

A potential ban on so-called Lethal Automomous Weapons Systems (LAWS) was discussed last week at the UN’s five-yearly Convention On Certain Conventional Weapons.

Some of the 120 nations taking part – including Brazil, South Africa and New Zealand – argued LAWS should be restricted by treaty like landmines and some indenciaries.

A growing list of countries including France and Germany support limits on some automous weapons including those that target humans. China said it supports a narrow set of restrictions.

Other nations, including the US, Russia, India, the UK and Australia resist a ban, saying that continuing to develop killer robots is essential to avoid being at a strategic disadvantage.

'Loitering munitions' like the Israeli-made Harop can be used to devastating effect in battle.

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The role of AI in future warfare Michael E. O’Hanlon Thursday, November 29, 2018

 

Editor's Note: 

This report is part of "A Blueprint for the Future of AI," a series from the Brookings Institution that analyzes the new challenges and potential policy solutions introduced by artificial intelligence and other emerging technologies.

To illustrate how artificial intelligence (AI) could affect the future battlefield, consider the following scenario based on a future book I am writing entitled The Senkaku Paradox: Risking Great Power War over Limited Stakes. The scenario, imagined to occur sometime between now and 2040, begins with a hypothesized Russian “green men” attack against a small farming village in eastern Estonia or Latvia. Russia’s presumed motive would be to sow discord and dissent within NATO, weakening the alliance. Estonia and Latvia are NATO member states, and thus the United States is sworn to defend them. But in the event of such a Russian aggression, a huge, direct NATO response may or may not be wise. Furthermore, the robotics and AI dimension of this scenario, and a number of others similar to it, will likely get more interesting as the years go by.

A hypothetical scenario in which Russia creates a pretext to slice off a piece of an eastern Baltic state, occupying it in purported “defense” of native Russian speakers there, could cause enormous problems if NATO chose to reverse the aggression. In that event, it could require a massive deployment of Operation Desert Storm-like proportions to liberate the territory while facing down any Russian reinforcements that might be sent. In a less successful case, Russia could interdict major elements of that attempted NATO deployment through some combination of cyberattacks, high-altitude nuclear bursts causing electromagnetic pulse, targeted missile or aerial strikes on ports and major ships, and perhaps even an “escalate to de-escalate” series of carefully chosen nuclear detonations against very specific targets on land or sea.[1] While the latter concept of nuclear preemption is not formally part of Russian military doctrine, it could influence actual Russian military options today.[2] Alternatively, the NATO deployment could succeed, only to face subsequent Russian nuclear strikes once evidence of NATO’s conventional superiority on the Baltic battlefields had presented Moscow with the Hobson’s choice of either escalating or losing.[3]

By 2040, some aspects of this kind of scenario could improve for American and NATO interests. The clarity and perhaps the scale of NATO’s security commitments to the Baltic states might have strengthened, reducing the chances of deterrence failure in the first place and improving the initial capacity for resistance to any Russian aggression.[4] But on balance, technological innovation, including advancements in robotics and AI, makes it quite possible that things could also get worse.

Full story > The role of AI in future warfare (brookings.edu)

U.S.-China tech battle entering its ‘primetime’ — and generative A.I. could be the next frontier

 KEY POINTS

• A hallmark of U.S-China tensions in the past few years has been the battle between the two nations for tech supremacy.
• Washington has sought to cut off China from key technology like semiconductors while China has looked to boost its self-sufficiency and wean itself off American technology.
• Now analysts say that generative artificial intelligence, the technology behind OpenAI’s ChatGPT, could be the next battleground between the two nations.

China’s President Xi Jinping (R) met with U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken. The U.S. has looked to cut China off from key technologies like advanced semiconductors over the past few years. The two sides likely discussed tech tensions but analysts said not much is likely to change even as the two sides look to improve relations.

Leah Millis | AFP | Getty Images

Generative artificial intelligence, the technology that viral chatbot ChatGPT is based on, could be the new battleground in the battle for tech supremacy between the U.S. and China, according to one analyst.

Despite the two nations seeking better relations after U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken met with Chinese President Xi Jinping this week, analysts said the tech tensions will continue.

Washington has sought to cut off China from key technology like semiconductors while China has looked to boost its self-sufficiency and wean itself off American technology, touting its domestic sectors.

“The status quo isn’t likely to change much on any front — from sanctions to business pressure,” Abishur Prakash, CEO of Toronto-based advisory firm, The Geopolitical Business, told CNBC via email.

AI, which is seen as a critical technology by both nations, will likely be dragged into the battle between the two sides.

AI in the ‘crosshairs’

Former President Donald Trump began a trade war with China and technology was dragged in the middle Washington’s tactics so far have relied on restricting China’s access to technologies it deems critical such as semiconductors.

An escalation occurred last year when the U.S. introduced sweeping rules aimed at cutting China off from major tools and components to make advanced chips and choking the country off from critical semiconductors. The move was seen as potentially hobbling China’s homegrown chip industry. U.S. has also got allies to align on tough export rules of tech to China.

Meanwhile, the U.S. has looked to boost its own domestic technology including semiconductors, with funding such as the $52 billion available via the Chips and Science Act.

Washington’s attention is now likely to turn to generative AI.

“There will likely be more attempts coming from Washington to target the development in China of some types of applications, and generative AI could be in the crosshairs in the coming year,” Paul Triolo, the technology policy lead at consulting firm Albright Stonebridge, told CNBC.

It comes “as the Biden administration determines which technologies could benefit both China’s military modernization, and which could also boost Chinese companies’ ability to make breakthroughs in generative AI,” he added.

Generative AI relates to applications such as ChatGPT which are able to generate content when prompted by users.

How U.S. restrictions target A.I.

AI needs to be trained on huge amounts of data in order to work. Generative AI is based on so-called large language models, meaning it is trained on huge amount of language in order to be able to understand and respond to prompts from users.

The processing of this data requires a large amount of computing power that is powered by specific semiconductors, such as those sold by U.S. firm Nvidia, which is seen as the market leader in such chips.

Part of the U.S.’s current restrictions aim to cut China off from some of Nvidia’s key chips, which in turn could hamper China’s AI development.

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Washington is also carrying out an outbound investment review, which would put rules in place for American investment into foreign companies.

“The upcoming outbound investment review executive order will include restrictions on U.S. investment in some AI-related technologies, and this will be a major indication of the direction of U.S. technology controls in the final two years of the Biden administration,” Triolo said.

China’s generative A.I. push

ChatGPT, developed by American firm OpenAI, has taken the world by storm and has sparked somewhat of an AI arms race between U.S. technology companies including Microsoft, which is an investor, and Alphabet.

Chinese technology giants have taken note.

Over the past few months, Chinese technology giants from Baidu to Alibaba have announced plans and launched trials for their own ChatGPT rivals.

Complete Article > U.S.-China tech war: Why Generative AI could be the next battleground (cnbc.com)

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