Fed Economist Explains Why Today’s Ultra-Low Unemployment Rate Is Misleading

The current stage of America’s economy is hard to define. While some economists claim we’ve moved past the post-recession period and entered another pre-recession time, others doubt the recovery is complete.

Per estimates by the Federal Open Market Committee, the economy is considered running at full-speed when the unemployment rate reaches 4.5 percent. However, despite the unemployment rate falling from the 2009 peak of 10 percent to 3.9 percent as of last month, an 18-year low, the average wage has barely grown accordingly. Neither has inflation.

Neel Kashkari, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis (one of the 12 regional Federal Reserve banks), believes the culprit lies within the unemployment calculation itself.

“The headline U.S. unemployment rate captures only those who are actively looking for work. For example, it ignores people who are out of the labor force because they have given up looking for a job,” he wrote in an op-ed for the Financial Times on Wednesday.

The Great Recession pushed many working-age Americans out of the labor market. Although the economic recovery has brought some of these people back to the workforce, it’s unknown how many are still left behind.

According to recent months’ statistics from the Labor Department, the “marginally attached” group, defined as people who had not looked for jobs in the four weeks before the Labor Department’s monthly job survey, has been slowly rising.

“Backward-looking statistics show nearly a third of these marginally attached Americans are now aged over 55,” Andrew Hunter, co-founder of job search engine Adzuna, told Observer.

That means a lot of people have simply stopped looking for jobs.

“It could be that the 3.9 percent measure does not capture the true slack in the labor market and that additional, hidden slack explains today’s modest wage growth,” Kashkari explained.

A more reliable measure of workforce robustness, Kashkari suggested, is the employment-to-population ratio of prime age workers (aged 25 to 54).

“By focusing on prime-age adults, this measure of how many people are actually working helps adjust for demographic trends such as aging,” he added.

This ratio, as of today, is 79.2 percent, down from 80 percent in 2007. The difference represents one million people.

“That drop suggests that approximately one million additional prime-age Americans would be available to work if the U.S. labor market recovered to its pre-recession strength,” Kashkari wrote.

The prime-age labor participation has also been declining in recent years. Although in some sectors the decline of human labor has been a result of technological advancement, which is actually good news, to the broader economy, this is an alarming sign—particularly when this rate is rising in other developed countries.

According to the most recent data from the San Francisco Fed, prime-age labor participation rates in Germany, Canada and the U.K. all exceeded 85 percent as of 2015.

“Each of these countries is experiencing falling fertility rates and an aging population, just like the U.S.” Kashkari noted. “The truth is, we don’t know how much slack still remains in the U.S. labor market. But international labor markets offer a hopeful sign that many more Americans might choose to work if wages picked up.”

• SEE ALSO: JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon: Odds for the Next Recession Are 100 Percent

10 Habits Of Unsuccessful People You Don’t Want To Copy

by DARIUS FOROUX

Do you really think you’ll be successful if you simply copy other people’s habits? If that was the case, success was easy.

I never met a successful person until I was 24. I grew up in a working-class family—I was more frequently around people who were the opposite.

The first successful person I met was an entrepreneur in his forties. When I started my first real business, he was one of my first clients. When I met him, he was slightly overweight, had more money than he could count, and was merry all the time.

But he also lost his wife, the love his life, a half decade before. We became friends. He told me that he never got over it. Even though he experienced tragedy — he still had a positive outlook on life and did good things.

He truly cared about others. I have to be honest, my first business wasn’t great, but he still gave me a chance to do business with him.

He always said, “I just try to avoid being unsuccessful.” That is the number one thing I learned from him. He said that you should study what makes you unsuccessful, unhappy, broke, fat, stupid. Then, eliminate those things out of your life.

To this day, I still live by that advice. I like his concept of trying not to be unsuccessful. Because what is success? The second best definition that I’ve found comes from Bob Dylan, my favorite musician of all time.

“A man is a success if he gets up in the morning and gets to bed at night, and in between he does what he wants to do.”
– Bob Dylan
You’ve probably read articles that discuss the habits of successful people. The problem with those types of articles is that they give you conditional promises.

“Eat three eggs with bacon, wash your hair with soybeans, do ten push-ups, and do your daily affirmations, AT THE SAME TIME.”

We have to let go of the “if I do x, I’ll be successful or happy” way of thinking.

What follows is a list of things that we shouldn’t do. If you have one of these bad habits, don’t worry, no one’s perfect. If you have two bad habits, you should worry.

Do you have three or more? You might want to change — because one thing is sure: No one wants to be unsuccessful.

1. They Are Always Distracted
Essentialism by Greg McKeown is one of my favorite books. McKeown shares the story of when he met his former classmate, years after graduating.

He told McKeown that he was in between jobs and asked if McKeown could help him. Twenty seconds into the conversation the guy got a text and started looking down to his phone and started responding.

McKeown says: “Ten seconds went by. Then twenty. I simply stood there as he continued to text away furiously.” After 2 minutes he gave up and walked away from the obsessive texter.

Don’t live your life in the future or past, lost in thoughts and worry. If that guy from the example was present, he might have got an awesome job recommendation from Greg McKeown.

2. They Only Talk The Talk
You know what’s better than talking about something? Doing it.

In 2010, Derek Sivers gave a TED talk called Keep your goals to yourself, where he presented scientific evidence that talking about your goals is counterproductive.

We see it all the time in real life and on social media: “I’m training for a marathon.” “I’m starting a business.”

The crazy thing is how people react. They applaud you for announcing something. Let’s pause for a second: Saying you want to run a marathon and actually running a marathon are two different things, right?

In your brain, those things are actually not that far apart. Derek Sivers says:

“When you tell someone your goal and they acknowledge it, psychologists have found that it’s called a “social reality.” The mind is kind of tricked into feeling that it’s already done. And then because you’ve felt that satisfaction, you’re less motivated to do the actual hard work necessary.”
Be someone that does things, not someone who talks about things.

3. They Spend Time With Losers
Spend enough time with losers, and you’ll become one. Apply this analogy to any type of person.

Do you want to get fit? Hang out with fit people. People feed off each other’s energy.

What’s better, your friend asking when you’re going to the gym, or your friend asking to go out for the third time that week?

4. They Hate Everything
They especially hate people that are doing well. Why can’t you be happy for other people? Don’t worry, you won’t be a Pollyanna. You can still be cool and be positive.

Give people some love, it won’t kill you. They even hate things that just ‘are’. “Ugh, it rained this morning, and my hair got all messed up. I hate rain.” C’mon, really?

Having a bad day is ok—everyone get’s irritable once in a while. But if you always hate everything, you’ll have a bad life.

5. They Procrastinate
What’s the benefit of putting things off? I once asked my college professor to extend a deadline for an essay.

He said: “I’m perfectly happy to extend your deadline by a week. The only thing I’m asking you is, ‘will your essay be better if you hand it in a week from now?’ ”

My answer was “no”, so I worked my ass off to finish it on time. Only delay things when you’ll do a better job later.

What’s the point of delaying something if you get the same outcome? Do it now, or do it better later.

6. They Don’t Listen To Others
Unsuccessful people only love themselves. To be honest, we all love ourselves, but if you’re unsuccessful, you ONLY love yourself.

We listen to others because we care about them. How else can you show you care? Everyone can give a hug, but not everybody calls you just to ask “How are you?” Ask, listen, care, repeat.

7. They Are Lazy
Never feel like doing anything? We’ve all been there: Not feeling like going to dinner with your partner, or not feeling like buying an awesome present for your mother’s birthday. Let’s face it, it’s all because we’re lazy.

Be a sport and get off your couch — participate with your family, friends, partner. The beauty of life lies in new and novel experiences.

When you’re lazy, you don’t even give yourself a chance to experience new things. It’s also not fair to the people in your life.

8. They Don’t Learn
Learning is one of the most difficult things in the world. It’s not a surprise that many people never read a book, never finish school, or never learn from their mistakes. Learning is a struggle.

But think about it: We live in the most exciting time in history for learners. The access to information has never been this easy. In the past, if your dad was a farmer, you became a farmer. Things were like that.

Now, you can be anything you wish — you just need to learn how to do it.

9. They Are Not Nice
Somehow, people think it’s cool to be a jerk. Honestly, it’s way cooler to be nice. You don’t have to be a Buddhist Monk or anything, just be a nice person.

Try it some time, you might make a few new friends. And if you have difficulty defining what a ‘nice person’ is, you’re likely a jerk.

10. They Are Quitters
I saved the worst for last. If there’s one thing you take away from this article, I hope it’s this:

“Our greatest weakness lies in giving up. The most certain way to succeed is always to try just one more time.” — Thomas A. Edison
There’s nothing I can add to that. Actually, there is: Never Give Up.

This article was originally published on dariusforoux.com.

Do you want to get my best productivity tips for free?
I’ve made an eBook with 5 tips, exercises, and video training, that you can use to get immediate results. Curious?

Linked > https://tinyurl.com/yd23byzr

No words necessary

What is blogging and who are bloggers?

• Is it a stay-at-home mommy blogger giving parenting advice and sharing recipes?
• Is it a self-proclaimed marketing guru, teaching people how to become a millionaire?
• Is it backpacking through Europe on a budget and sharing your stories with family back at home?
• Is it rambling about your mundane, daily life and what you had for dinner?
• Is it teaching people how finish a basement?

It’s all of the above and much more.

According to Dictionary.com, a blog is “a website containing a writer's or group of writers' own experiences, observations, opinions, etc., and often having images and links to other websites.”

It’s much more than that, but to make it super simple, I’d define it as an independent source of information that is regularly publishing new content.

What's So Special About That?

Before the internet came around, the average person didn’t have that many opportunities to share their ideas, express themselves and so on and so forth.

You had conversations with friends and colleagues but that’s about it. Perhaps publish a book and influence people that way, if you’re lucky.

Blogging is an amazing opportunity we have to share our ideas, opinions, knowledge and anything else you can put in writing, with other people.

It has given average people the ability to share their voice with millions of people all around the world.

You’re also going to get feedback, deeper insights from experts reading your materials and serious discussions about topics that you care about.

Freedom of Speech

This is critical.

The blogger who started the platform is in full control and no one has the ability to censor what they say or what subjects they cover.

No one is going to ask if you’ve got a marketing degree, before you publish a blog post about the subject.

These are just some of the wonders of blogging.

How Does Blogging Work?

Basically, bloggers publish “blog posts” or articles for others to read, usually talking about one specific topic.

The MonetizePros blog is about internet marketing and that’s all we’re going to get into. We’re not going to discuss world politics, religion, fitness or anything of that nature.

That’s the way the majority of blogs work nowadays, they have a niche.

There are bloggers from all around the world and from very different backgrounds. This makes it nearly impossible to generalize the meaning of a blog.

It could be something educational, like we’re doing here at MonetizePros.

A website posting funny cat pictures with the goal of entertaining other people can also be referred to as a blog. The same goes for Mr. John Doe who just wants to publicly write about his everyday life, with no goal in mind.

A Blogger is Someone With a Platform

Bloggers aren’t just writing for the sake of writing. They’ve got a platform, an asset. Every time you hit publish, you’re building something new on the foundation that is your blog.

Over time, as you stay consistent and dedicated to the journey, you’ll build up an audience and it’s extremely likely that you’ll start making money off your blog.

There are bloggers out there making $100,000+ per month talking about things they love and helping other people – it’s amazing!

Common monetization methods include using display advertising, promoting other people’s products as an affiliate, creating your own infoproducts, selling fan-gear and finding sponsors for your content.

A Blogger is Someone With a Legacy

I’ve had a few personal friends compare blogging to social media, like Facebook.

It’s the same concept - you could just as easily post super useful and educational content on your Facebook and have people like it, share it and discuss it in the comments.

Blogging stands out because it’s permanently there, it’s not going to disappear into your “newsfeed”.

Something that we wrote three years ago over at MonetizePros is still relevant and getting hundreds of readers per day – it’s evergreen content.

In fact, as long as my hosting bills get paid, people will still be reading this after I'm long gone.

Unlike social media posts, blog posts also get picked up by search engines like Google and that means you’ve got the potential of receiving millions and millions of readers, without the luck of having something go viral on social media.

A Blogger is Someone With a Variety of Skills

Although there are bloggers out there who just do their thing and write, it’s usually much more than that.

If you’re looking to take it up as a career, there’s a myriad of skills that you’ll pick up on the way.

You’re not going to be a world-class expert at most of these, but you’ll be good, I promise.

You’ll start to understand how search engine optimization works, learn the basics of online marketing, know how to create and maintain websites, how to do basic web design and many other interesting things.

A blogger is a true jack of all trades.

What’s the difference between a website and a blog?

So this is probably the most confusing part for most people... How is this different from a website?

Which one do I need? Websites vs blogs?

Websites tend to be static, meaning that they do not get updated very often. Blogging is all about frequency and consistency.

Blogging is very informal and conversational - I'm talking to you like I would talk to my best friend and that's alright.

Blogging is also much more personal - you probably know who is behind this blog post, if you follow MonetizePros. Not only that, but it's not a one-way street.

Websites usually just push their information out and don't allow comments or any sort of communication/feedback except email. 

If you've got anything to add to a blogpost however, you can easily leave a comment at the end of the post 

How do you become a blogger?

As per the definition, a blog is a website, too. Websites are scary for the Average Joe. The idea of starting a website seems fairly similar to rocket science and astrophysics.

Actually, it’s the opposite! Starting a blog in 2016 is super easy and should take you less than twenty minutes.

We’ve created an amazing, super in-depth tutorial on how to create a blog – click here to follow along!

If you’re not yet convinced that blogging is for you, perhaps check out some of the 46 benefits?

9 Annoying Dating Trends Every Modern Romantic Needs to Know

They didn't say that many people are Hollywood delusional in their expectations.

Now that social media and dating apps have infiltrated our love lives, relationships can get confusing in entirely new ways. It's easier than ever to meet new romantic prospects, as well as disappear from their lives, pop back in again, and/or generally confuse the hell out of them. Why did they send you that cat video with no comment? Now that they've Instagrammed a photo with you, are you two "official"? They haven't texted since the fourth date. Does that mean they've moved on? (And are you tired yet?)
As new dating behaviors arise, so too do new viral terms to describe them. In fact, there are so many weird-sounding dating terms circulating these days that it's hard to keep track. Just when you start to get used to the word "ghosting" in your everyday conversations, other words like "phubbing," "benching," and "breadcrumbing" enter the mix. But these words exist because shitty dating behaviors are depressingly common, and they're worth calling out. To help you identify and avoid them (or simply understand what your friends are talking about), here are nine of the most popular viral dating terms defined. We're hopeful this guide will help you spot a "kittenfisher" before they reel you in.

1. Ghosting

Let's start with this OG of modern dating lingo. Ghosting occurs when a person suddenly halts all forms of communication with the person they've been dating, ostensibly hoping the ghosted person will get the hint without the ghoster having to break up with them.

2. Haunting
Haunting is when a person continues to interact with you on social media after you've stopped seeing each other. Haunting behaviors are often on the passive side (for example, liking your photo instead of commenting on it) so that you end up thinking about the person but still haven't been invited to respond in any way.
This pattern can seriously mess with your mind. Imagine finally feeling like you're over your ex...then seeing that they've liked an Instagram photo of you and the new person you're dating. This can be as exciting as it is infuriating: Does it mean your ex still misses you? Are they jealous? Why won't they leave you alone?! It's a combination of thoughts virtually guaranteed to throw you off.

3. Breadcrumbing

When you picture someone breadcrumbing, you might think of the classic Brothers Grimm fairy tale Hansel and Gretel, in which two siblings drop morsels of bread as they walk in order to find their way home. The dating version is a little different (and I'd take a bloodthirsty witch over a douchey ex any day). Similar to haunting, breadcrumbing is when someone continues to leave little clues that they might be into you…only they aren't into you at all.
As Bela Gandhi, founder of date coaching company Smart Dating Academy, explained to Today, breadcrumbing is "leading somebody on with no intention of following through," often to get attention. This behavior can manifest in a variety of ways: a random text just to "check in" here, a flirty 2 a.m. Snapchat there. But the breadcrumbs don't lead to actual plans, making this a really frustrating — and potentially heartbreaking — dating behavior.

4. Benching

Benching is another term for leading someone on, but there is a bit more intention involved in it than in breadcrumbing. Benching is when someone keeps a potential partner on the romantic back burner. They don't make serious moves to deepen the connection, but they don't extinguish the hope of a future relationship, either. It's like when an athlete is benched during a game: They're not actually playing but they might get put in later if the coach needs them.

5. Stashing

If you're being stashed, it could take a while for you to realize it. On the surface, your relationship might seem perfect: You go out all the time, they text you consistently, and you're spending almost every weekend at their apartment. There's just one problem: You haven't met a single one of their friends or family members, and, come to think of it, they haven't posted any photos of the two of you on social media. Congratulations, they just might be stashing you — in other words, they're keeping you separate from the rest of their life, possibly in order to date other people at the same time. Definitely a low blow.

6. Submarining

Submarining is sometimes the sequel to ghosting. Picture this: After an amazing handful of dates with someone, all of a sudden, they disappear. Boom, you've been ghosted. You pick your ego up off the floor only for them to text you weeks later, asking to hang out again as if nothing happened. This is submarining, or peacing out and then popping back up like a submarine resurfacing from underwater. If it seems like a submariner genuinely wants a relationship with you when they reappear, it's worth asking them what happened, because this is shady behavior.

7. Phubbing

Have you ever gotten the feeling that your partner is more committed to their phone than they are to you? Welcome to phubbing, a combination of the words "phone" and "snubbing." If your date would rather check their Twitter mentions than listen to what you have to say at dinner, you know exactly what this is. Given that many of us are glued to our phones on a daily basis — the average American spends a whopping five hours on mobile devices a day, according to analytics firm Flurry — it's no surprise that this obnoxious dating trend is on the rise. A word of advice? Keep your phone in your pocket (or purse) during date night.

8. Zombieing

Like submarining, zombieing is when someone who previously ghosted on you reappears in your life. The difference? If you're being zombied, it's usually more of a throwback — like your high school S.O. sliding into your DMs a few days before your ten-year reunion. This person from your past was out of your life, and now they want back in. (They're coming back from the dead, get it?)
But hey, sometimes reviving a long-lost relationship works out. As Nancy Kalish, professor emeritus of psychology at California State University, Sacramento, told Quartz, rekindled romances have the potential for great intensity and intimacy. The person reaching out to their ex may feel like they finally "get to 'right the wrong'" and like "this is the person they were meant to be with," Kalish explains. Just make sure you and your zombie are on the same page.

9. Kittenfishing

Thanks in part to the MTV series of the same name, you probably know about catfishing, or creating a fake online persona to trick someone into a relationship. Now, there's kittenfishing, too. Although it sounds a lot cuter than catfishing, there's nothing attractive about this behavior: It's when someone exaggerates their qualities on a dating site with tactics like using old photos or embellishing their talents or successes. While it's not exactly lying, it's still deceptive, and it might leave you feeling duped after a date. Honestly, I'm annoyed just thinking about it. Maybe we should all just stop dating and invest our emotional energy in actual kittens instead. At least they'd never ghost us.

Column: Uneducated Voters Have Disturbing Effect On Elections

With the election results looming over the majority of Americans' heads, the anticipation for the outcomes is mounting. For all of those who committed to candidates and propositions, the hopes are high for success. Yet it isn't very hard to become discouraged when you speak with fellow students about their choices and commitments in the elections.

It seems that present-day elections are no longer about the candidate or proposition with the most appealing content, but rather the candidate or proposition with the best-edited commercial, the brightest colors or the most memorable slogan. In essence, ignorance and superficiality have taken a stronghold on our voting system. People, more than ever before, are voting without knowing what they're voting for.

For young voters, especially students, extensive research on such things as economic plans and propositions isn't always practical. Between midterms, the constant bombardment of work and homework and the much more appealing idea of Halloween, most students are more apt to spend their time thinking about costumes and studying than who they believe is best fit to run the country. The problem is that many people take their lack of knowledge to the polls, casting their votes out of pure ignorance.

When I asked a fellow student how he had voted on a few of the current propositions, he recited to me his "yes" and "no" votes with a great deal of passion. But when I asked him to explain what a few of the propositions meant, I was surprised to find out he didn't know. It was all the more frustrating when he followed his admission of ignorance with the explanation that he had only voted that way because a friend told him to. In another such instance, a close family member I talked to recently also expressed a great deal of passion about their choice of candidate. When I attempted to say anything in support of the other party, they retorted, reciting verbatim a commercial I had seen in favor of their candidate choice.

Yet the truly troubling factor was the fact that the points they were making had been addressed and discredited in at least one of the three televised presidential debates. It brought to mind two possible explanations: The person had most likely not watched any of the debates, or, likewise, probably hadn't even looked into as much as a commercial for the candidate. In either of the two situations, they hadn't displayed anything even resembling convincing or credible arguments for their decisions.

In both of the aforementioned situations there is a common theme. Americans, nowadays, are beginning to drift away from being informed voters. For me, it is very scary to think people are voting on issues and candidates based on arbitrary criticisms or hearsay.

Individuality is crucial in situations like elections. Consider this: If every fourth person you meet votes the same as one of their friends or bases their vote on one catchy commercial or slogan, and that is a constant throughout the university, then a fourth of the university is essentially voting blind. This means that roughly 9,000 students are voting for things they may not understand. Now take that percentage and transfer it to the United States. If only one-third of the country votes, that's more than 100 million people. And if a quarter of them vote blindly, that means more than 25 million people are voting blindly. Twenty-five million votes could swing an election, which means that people who might not even know more than his name could decide our president.

With ideas such as this one present and even probable, it's hard to keep a considerable hope for a better future when it seems that for every educated voter there is an ignorant one to counter his or her vote.

UWIRE.com

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